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Early Warning Indicators for Latin America""

  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Martha López

    ()

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

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File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra608.pdf
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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 007073.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007073
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  1. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 201-261.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  3. Oecd, 2010. "Labour markets and the crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 756, OECD Publishing.
  4. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez N., . "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 525, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  6. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," CEPR Discussion Papers 7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Potter, 2010. "Some observations and lessons from the crisis," Speech 25, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Marco Terrones & Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., . "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "La crisis," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 15-60, January-J.
  16. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:14-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The financial crisis and credit markets," Proceedings 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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