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International monetary coordination and the great deviation


  • Taylor, John B.


Research in the early 1980s found that the gains from international coordination of monetary policy were quantitatively small compared to simply getting domestic policy right. That prediction turned out to be a pretty good description of monetary policy in the 1980s, 1990s, and until recently. Because this balanced international picture has largely disappeared, the 1980s view about monetary policy coordination needs to be reexamined. The source of the problem is not that the models or the theory are wrong. Rather there was a deviation from the rule-like monetary policies that worked well in the 1980s and 1990s, and this deviation helped break down the international monetary balance. There were similar deviations at many central banks, an apparent spillover culminating in a global great deviation. The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible causes and consequences of these spillovers, and to show that uncoordinated responses of central banks to the deviations can create an amplification mechanism, which might be overcome by some form of policy coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:3:p:463-472 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.010

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2017. "The relevance of international spillovers and asymmetric effects in the Taylor rule," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 162-170.
    2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2017. "It ain’t over till it’s over: A global perspective on the Great Moderation-Great Recession interconnection," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(49), pages 4946-4969, October.
    3. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Menla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is There an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1588, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance; An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jürgen Matthes & Horst Löchel & Uwe Vollmer & Oliver Landmann, 2013. "Führt die Geldpolitik der japanischen Zentralbank zu einem Währungskrieg?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(10), pages 03-18, May.
    7. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    8. repec:eee:eecrev:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    10. Michael Bordo & Eric Monnet & Alain Naef, 2017. "The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 24016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:3-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," NBER Working Papers 20893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Haakon Kavli & Nicola Viegi, 2017. "Are Determinants of Portfolio Flows Always the Same? - South African Results from a Time Varying Parameter Var Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 3-27, March.
    14. Cabral,Rene & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Mollick,Andre Varella, 2016. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7712, The World Bank.
    15. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," BIS Working Papers 570, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item


    International policy coordination; International monetary balance; Rebalancing; Rules-based monetary policy; Great Moderation;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance


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