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Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices

  • Mary Riddel

This paper asks whether speculative house-price pressure in an economic center can spill into related housing markets. In other words, are bubbles contagious? I develop a theoretical model that allows for speculative price appreciation to spread from one market to another. I estimate an error-correction model using quarterly housing data for Las Vegas and Los Angeles and fundamental market variables from 1978 Quarter 2 through 2008 Quarter 1. Las Vegas prices show significant persistence and adjust slowly to disequilibrium. Contagious price and income growth from the Los Angeles market sustained by naïve expectations contributed to the bubble that formed in Las Vegas

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File URL: http://le.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/87/1/126
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Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Land Economics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 126-144

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:87:y:2011:i:1:p:126-144
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://le.uwpress.org/

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  1. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
  2. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
  3. Sainan Jin & Wanjun Jiang & Liangjun Su & Jianying Hu, 2006. "The Rise in House Prices in China: Bubbles or Fundamentals?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-8.
  4. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "The Diffusion of Housing Price Movements from Centre to Surrounding Areas," Discussion Papers 979, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2006:i:7:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Terrence Clauretie & Paul Thistle, 2007. "The Effect of Time-on-Market and Location on Search Costs and Anchoring: The Case of Single-Family Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 181-196, August.
  7. Berg, Lennart, 2000. "Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Houses – Correlation, Causation and Determinants," Working Paper Series 2000:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  8. Riddel, Mary, 1999. "Fundamentals, Feedback Trading, and Housing Market Speculation: Evidence from California," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 272-284, December.
  9. Steven Cook, 2005. "Detecting long-run relationships in regional house prices in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 107-118.
  10. Tirtiroglu, Dogan, 1992. "Efficiency in housing markets: Temporal and spatial dimensions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 276-292, September.
  11. Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1997. "Temporal and Spatial Information Diffusion in Real Estate Price Changes and Variances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 539-565.
  12. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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