IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-06c20006.html

The Rise in House Prices in China: Bubbles or Fundamentals?

Author

Listed:
  • Sainan Jin

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University)

  • Wanjun Jiang

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University)

  • Liangjun Su

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University)

  • Jianying Hu

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University)

Abstract

The dramatic rise of house prices in many cities of China has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. There is a huge debate on whether the increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or just by speculation. Like Levin and Wright (1997a, 1997b), we decompose house prices in China into fundamental and non-fundamental components. We also consider potential nonlinear feedback from the historical growth rate of house prices on the current house prices and propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the speculative components in the model. We demonstrate that the non-fundamental part contributes a relatively small proportion of the rise of house prices in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Sainan Jin & Wanjun Jiang & Liangjun Su & Jianying Hu, 2006. "The Rise in House Prices in China: Bubbles or Fundamentals?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06c20006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2006/Volume3/EB-06C20006A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riddel, Mary, 1999. "Fundamentals, Feedback Trading, and Housing Market Speculation: Evidence from California," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 272-284, December.
    2. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    3. Li, Qi, 2000. "Efficient Estimation of Additive Partially Linear Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1073-1092, November.
    4. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    5. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai Yin, 2001. "Detecting rational bubbles in the residential housing markets of Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-73, January.
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    7. Roehner, Bertrand M., 1999. "Spatial analysis of real estate price bubbles: Paris, 1984-1993," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-88, January.
    8. Isaac F. Megbolugbe & Allen P. Marks & Mary B. Schwartz, 1991. "The Economic Theory of Housing Demand: A Critical Review," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 381-393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2016. "Are house prices guided by fundamentals or speculative factors? An empirical inquiry for India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 47-64.
    2. Mary Riddel, 2011. "Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(1), pages 126-144.
    3. Lilia Karnizova, 2013. "Letting the speculative and the news views of the Japanese business cycle compete," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1146-1158.
    4. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    5. Mei Liu & Qing-Ping Ma, 2021. "Determinants of house prices in China: a panel-corrected regression approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, August.
    6. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    7. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2006:i:7:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    3. Kim, Bong Han & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2011. "Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1415-1423, May.
    4. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2011-05, May.
    5. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    6. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2016. "Are house prices guided by fundamentals or speculative factors? An empirical inquiry for India," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 47-64.
    7. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
    8. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    9. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    11. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    12. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony & Duca, John V, 2011. "Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 8361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    14. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    15. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    16. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    18. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2006. "Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price: A Simple Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 293-320.
    19. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    20. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    21. Paul E. Carrillo & Erik Robert De Wit & William D. Larson, 2012. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands," Working Papers 2012-11, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06c20006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.