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Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Alexander

    (School of Social Sciences, University of Sussex, Arts Building, Falmer, Brighton, BNI 9QN, Sussex, UK)

  • Michael Barrow

    (School of Social Sciences, University of Sussex, Arts Building, Falmer, Brighton, BNI 9QN, Sussex, UK)

Abstract

The data generation process underlying regional house prices in the UK is investigated using new statistical tests. It is found that causal flows tend to be northwards: the South East (rather than Greater London) acts as an exogenous price determinator of the other regions in the south; the Midland regions have a great influence on prices in the north and flows through the East Midlands are characterised by bi-directional causality. These results are largely independent of assumptions made about the data generation process (and tests of these assumptions have low power in any case). There are also similarities between this causality and migration patterns, particularly in the south of England.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:31:y:1994:i:10:p:1667-1689
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    Cited by:

    1. Haavio, Markus & Kauppi, Heikki, 2009. "House price fluctuations and residential sorting," Research Discussion Papers 14/2009, Bank of Finland.
    2. Gong, Yunlong & Hu, Jinxing & Boelhouwer, Peter J., 2016. "Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-117.
    3. Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Alan Peel & Alisa Yevgenyevna Yusupova, 2017. "Exuberance in the U.K. Regional Housing Markets," Working Papers 168117137, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
    5. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2015. "The Sources of Risk Spillovers among U.S. REITs: Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 67-100, March.
    7. repec:kap:iecepo:v:15:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-017-0399-x is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wichita State University, 2016. "Contagion, Interdependence and Diversification across Regional UK Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(3), pages 327-351.
    9. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    10. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Spillover Effect between the Regional and the National Housing Markets in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1957-1976, December.
    11. Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2008. "Big City Difference? Another Look at Factors Driving House Prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 157-177, November.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:993860 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Shu-hen Chiang, 2014. "Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications: Comovement or Ripple Effect," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 103-120, November.
    15. Mary Riddel, 2011. "Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(1), pages 126-144.

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