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Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Houses – Correlation, Causation and Determinants

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Abstract

The structural differences and the dynamics in prices on the second-hand market for family houses in large(Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo), medium-sized, small and industrial cities and sparsely populated areas are analysed in this paper. The basic house price data set used in the analysis consists of constant quality monthly price indexes. The sample starts in January 1981 and ends in July 1997. The real price change in house prices for all seven regions display a high degree of autocorrelation, and the correlograms reveal a mean reverting pattern. The Granger causality test indicates that the real price changes for the Stockholm area “Granger cause” the price changes in the other areas. Thus, the real price change in the Stockholm area has a ripple effect on the six other areas. Both bivariate and multivariate Granger test indicate information content in a number of macroeconomic variables versus the real price changes for the Stockholm area. A simple VAR model was estimated with the price changes for family houses in the Stockholm area, a proxy for consumption growth and the change in the rate in the unemployment rate as endogenous variables and a number of exogenous macro variables. Experiments with impulse response functions show that a shock in the change in the rate of unemployment has a strong effect on real house prices and consumption.

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  • Berg, Lennart, 2000. "Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Houses – Correlation, Causation and Determinants," Working Paper Series 2000:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2000_007
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    1. James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-1443, November.
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    6. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    7. Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer.
    8. Koskela, Erkki & Loikkanen, Heikki A. & Viren, Matti, 1992. "House prices, household saving and financial market liberalization in Finland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 549-558, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "The Diffusion of Housing Price Movements from Centre to Surrounding Areas," Discussion Papers 979, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
    3. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    4. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," REVISTA ECOS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    5. Gong, Yunlong & Hu, Jinxing & Boelhouwer, Peter J., 2016. "Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-117.
    6. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working Papers 1004, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    7. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, "undated". "Explaining Spatial Variation in Housing Prices: An Economic Geography Approach," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600023, EcoMod.
    8. Hallberg, Daniel & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Turnover and Price in the Housing Market: Causation, Association or Independence?," Working Paper Series 2002:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Mary Riddel, 2011. "Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(1), pages 126-144.
    10. Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Gauvin, Laetitia & Vignes, Annick & Nadal, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "Modeling urban housing market dynamics: Can the socio-spatial segregation preserve some social diversity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1300-1321.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional house price; Granger causality; ripple effect; VAR modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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