Prices on the Second-hand Market for Swedish Family Houses – Correlation, Causation and Determinants
The structural differences and the dynamics in prices on the second-hand market for family houses in large(Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo), medium-sized, small and industrial cities and sparsely populated areas are analysed in this paper. The basic house price data set used in the analysis consists of constant quality monthly price indexes. The sample starts in January 1981 and ends in July 1997. The real price change in house prices for all seven regions display a high degree of autocorrelation, and the correlograms reveal a mean reverting pattern. The Granger causality test indicates that the real price changes for the Stockholm area “Granger cause” the price changes in the other areas. Thus, the real price change in the Stockholm area has a ripple effect on the six other areas. Both bivariate and multivariate Granger test indicate information content in a number of macroeconomic variables versus the real price changes for the Stockholm area. A simple VAR model was estimated with the price changes for family houses in the Stockholm area, a proxy for consumption growth and the change in the rate in the unemployment rate as endogenous variables and a number of exogenous macro variables. Experiments with impulse response functions show that a shock in the change in the rate of unemployment has a strong effect on real house prices and consumption.
|Date of creation:||10 May 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden|
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Englund, P. & Hendershott, P.H. & Turner, B., 1995. "The Tax Reform and the Housing Market," Papers 20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997.
"Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
- Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
- Englund, P. & Ioannides, Y.M., 1996. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Papers 1996-01, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-1443, November.
- Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Bank of England working papers 5, Bank of England.
- Koskela, Erkki & Loikkanen, Heikki A. & Viren, Matti, 1992. "House prices, household saving and financial market liberalization in Finland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 549-558, April.
- Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)