IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v59y2016icp103-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Yunlong
  • Hu, Jinxing
  • Boelhouwer, Peter J.

Abstract

This paper comprehensively tests the spatial interrelationships of 10 housing markets in the Pan-Pearl River Delta (Pan-PRD) in China, including the properties of spatial causality, convergence and diffusion patterns. The pairwise Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests suggest widely existing leading-lag relationships between housing markets; a unidirectional causal flow from the eastern-central area to western China can be tentatively confirmed. However, there is a lack of sufficient evidence supporting pairwise long-run cointegration and convergence, indicating a diverged interurban housing market in the Pan-PRD. In the short run, the spatial-temporal diffusion model manifests the importance of the spillover effect from neighbouring cities in predicting one city's house price changes. Furthermore, the generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs) clearly depict the transmission pattern of shocks to one chosen city. The diffusion pattern is characterized by the fact that the shocks first spread to nearby cities with cities further away taking a longer time to respond.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Yunlong & Hu, Jinxing & Boelhouwer, Peter J., 2016. "Spatial interrelations of Chinese housing markets: Spatial causality, convergence and diffusion," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:103-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046216300436
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lennart Berg, 2002. "Prices on the second-hand market for Swedish family houses: correlation, causation and determinants," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24.
    2. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    3. John M. Clapp & Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1995. "Imperfect Information and Investor Inferences From Housing Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 239-269, September.
    4. Feixue Huang & Cheng Li & Yanxi Li, 2010. "Ripple Effect of Housing Prices among Chinese Deputy Provincial Cities Based on an Alternative Approach," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 19-24, November.
    5. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng, 2015. "Intercity Information Diffusion and Price Discovery in Housing Markets: Evidence from Google Searches," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 289-306, April.
    6. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    8. Ashworth, John & Parker, Simon C, 1997. "Modelling Regional House Prices in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 225-246, August.
    9. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    10. Dean Hanink & Robert Cromley & Avraham Ebenstein, 2012. "Spatial Variation in the Determinants of House Prices and Apartment Rents in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 347-363, August.
    11. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    13. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect in Malaysia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 895-922, April.
    14. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy E. Swanson, 2013. "A Closer Look at the U.S. Housing Market: Modeling Relationships among Regions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 542-568, September.
    15. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2369-2376.
    16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    17. Chi-Wei Su & Hsu-Ling Chang, 2013. "Is income converging in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 341-356, April.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Mehmet Balcilar & Abebe Beyene & Rangan Gupta & Monaheng Seleteng, 2013. "‘Ripple’ Effects in South African House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(5), pages 876-894, April.
    20. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2013. "Testing for long-run convergence across regional house prices in the UK: a pairwise approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1227-1238, April.
    21. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    22. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    23. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    24. William Miles, 2015. "Regional House Price Segmentation and Convergence in the US: A New Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 113-128, January.
    25. Bruno Giussani & George Hadjimatheou, 1991. "Modeling Regional House Prices In The United Kingdom," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 201-219, April.
    26. Roel Helgers & Erik Buyst, 2016. "Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of Housing Prices in the Presence of a Linguistic Border: Evidence from Belgium," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 92-122, March.
    27. Wen-Chi Liao & Daxuan Zhao & Li Ping Lim & Grace Khei Mie Wong, 2015. "Foreign liquidity to real estate market: Ripple effect and housing price dynamics," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(1), pages 138-158, January.
    28. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    29. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng & Hongyu Liu, 2014. "House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 522-545, April.
    30. Steven Cook, 2003. "The Convergence of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(11), pages 2285-2294, October.
    31. Kim, Young Se & Rous, Jeffrey J., 2012. "House price convergence: Evidence from US state and metropolitan area panels," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 169-186.
    32. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    33. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    34. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    2. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    3. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    4. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Hen, 2019. "Exuberance and spillovers in housing markets: Evidence from first- and second-tier cities in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 75-86.
    5. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Steve Cook & Duncan Watson, 2016. "A new perspective on the ripple effect in the UK housing market: Comovement, cyclical subsamples and alternative indices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3048-3062, November.
    7. Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma, 2021. "Long-run drivers and integration in interprovincial Canadian housing price relations," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 22-40, November.
    8. Dayong Zhang & Qiang Ji & Wan-Li Zhao & Nicholas J Horsewood, 2021. "Regional housing price dependency in the UK: A dynamic network approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(5), pages 1014-1031, April.
    9. Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. Shu-hen Chiang, 2014. "Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications: Comovement or Ripple Effect," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(6), pages 103-120, November.
    11. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Spillover Effect between the Regional and the National Housing Markets in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1957-1976, December.
    12. Jin Hu & Xuelei Xiong & Yuanyuan Cai & Feng Yuan, 2020. "The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    14. Francisco Blanco & Victor Martín & Guillermo Vazquez, 2016. "Regional house price convergence in Spain during the housing boom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(4), pages 775-798, March.
    15. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    16. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 467-481, April.
    17. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "Linear and nonlinear causality in the UK housing market: a regional approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 288-297.
    18. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Pairwise Convergence of District-level House Prices in London," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 721-740, March.
    19. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    20. Lo Cascio, Iolanda, 2021. "A wavelet analysis of the ripple effect in UK regional housing markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1093-1105.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial causality; Long-run convergence; Ripple effect; Diffusion; House prices; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:103-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.