IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain

  • Jan in’t Veld
  • Robert Kollmann
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom-bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit-constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using 1995Q1-2013Q2 data for Spain, the rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the rest of the world. We show that falling risk premia on Spanish housing and non-residential capital, a loosening of collateral constraints for Spanish households and firms, as well as the fall in the interest rate spread between Spain and the REA fuelled the Spanish output boom and the persistent rise in foreign capital flows to Spain, before the global financial crisis. During and after the global financial crisis, falling house prices, and a tightening of collateral constraints for Spanish borrowers contributed to a sharp reduction in capital inflows, and to the persistent slump in Spanish real activity. The credit crunch was especially pronounced for Spanish households.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2014/ecp519_en.htm
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 with number 519.

as
in new window

Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0519
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels

Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2014. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 516, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
  3. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks And International Business Cycles: Evidence From An Estimated Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 77-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-66, Summer.
  6. Hale, Galina B & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2014. "The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 9937, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert KOLLMANN, 2011. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 20, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 351-378, 05.
  9. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 429, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  11. Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
  12. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
  13. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
  14. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153, December.
  15. Kollmann, Robert, 1998. "US trade balance dynamics: the role of fiscal policy and productivity shocks and of financial market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 637-669, August.
  16. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-71, February.
  17. Kollmann, Robert & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in't, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy vs. Bank Rescue Measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jan in 't Veld & Andrea Pagano & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2012. "Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 458, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  19. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  20. Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & in′t Veld, Jan, 2013. "Fiscal policy, banks and the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 387-403.
  21. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Massimiliano Pisani, 2010. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 770, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  22. Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
  24. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  25. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2013. "Real Estate Valuation, Current Account and Credit Growth Patterns, Before and After the 2008-9 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 19190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  28. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
  29. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
  30. Robert Kollmann, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects of welfare and business cycles," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7628, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  31. In't Veld, Jan & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2011. "The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 386-406, April.
  32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  33. Hobza, Alexandr & Zeugner, Stefan, 2014. "Current accounts and financial flows in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 291-313.
  34. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  35. J. Stephen Ferris, 2013. "Fiscal policy," Chapters, in: The Elgar Companion to Public Choice, Second Edition, chapter 16, pages 260-283 Edward Elgar Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.