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The Maple Bubble: A History of Migration among Canadian Provinces

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This study reports evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces around the recent global financial crisis. Using a wealth of monthly data for about a thirty-year period we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the bubble in Quebec transmitted to four other Canadian provinces. Using a recently developed migration test, we show evidence of time-varying transmission intensities. In all cases an inverted U-shape is encountered, suggesting that initially migrations gain strength and then decrease after a maximum point is reached. Interestingly, intensities increase significantly around the maximum point of the bubble in Quebec. Our results have important implications for the design of housing market policies.

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  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "The Maple Bubble: A History of Migration among Canadian Provinces," Borradores de Economia 992, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:992
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    Keywords

    Housing bubbles; Bubble transmission; Recursive right-tailed unit root tests; Canada.;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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