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Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages

Author

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  • Massimiliano Bencardino

    (Department of Political, Social and Communication Sciences, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132, 84084 Fisciano (SA), Italy)

  • Antonio Nesticò

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II, 132, 84084 Fisciano (SA), Italy)

Abstract

Vast metropolitan areas include both urban areas and rural outskirts. Between these areas, there are strong links to the point which they cannot be examined separately. There is a contemporary presence of residential function and working activity in the rural outskirts, as well as in the typical sector of agriculture. Therefore, the production of goods and services for the city requires a combined analysis, due to the large territory which it has to consider. The evolution of the population of such a large territory can be studied in great detail, with reference to the single census area and with the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This means that such a demographic development produces an effect on the values of the urban real estate. This work demonstrates the existing interconnections between urban areas and rural outskirts. Data collection on trends of the population living in the Naples metropolitan area and the house prices associated with this area, and the post spatial processing of such data, allows for the establishment of thematic maps according to which a model capable of interpreting the population development is defined. A study of the statistical correlations shows the consequences that the population dynamics produce for property prices. In addition, the diachronic analysis of the sales prices of residential buildings demonstrates that economic functions, exclusive of certain urban or rural territories, end up distributing and integrating.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Bencardino & Antonio Nesticò, 2017. "Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:536-:d:94600
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pace, R. Kelley & Barry, Ronald & Gilley, Otis W. & Sirmans, C. F., 2000. "A method for spatial-temporal forecasting with an application to real estate prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 229-246.
    2. Antonio Nesticò & Maria Macchiaroli & Ornella Pipolo, 2015. "Costs and Benefits in the Recovery of Historic Buildings: The Application of an Economic Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-16, November.
    3. R. Kelley Pace & James P. LeSage, 2004. "Spatial Statistics and Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 147-148, September.
    4. Gianluigi De Mare & Maria Fiorella Granata & Antonio Nesticò, 2015. "Weak and Strong Compensation for the Prioritization of Public Investments: Multidimensional Analysis for Pools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-17, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ellen Banzhaf & Sally Anderson & Gwendoline Grandin & Richard Hardiman & Anne Jensen & Laurence Jones & Julius Knopp & Gregor Levin & Duncan Russel & Wanben Wu & Jun Yang & Marianne Zandersen, 2022. "Urban-Rural Dependencies and Opportunities to Design Nature-Based Solutions for Resilience in Europe and China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Aijun Guo & Xiaojiang Ding & Fanglei Zhong & Qingping Cheng & Chunlin Huang, 2019. "Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Shiwei Zhang & Jinghui Zhao & Yanfeng Jiang & Ali Cheshmehzangi & Wenbin Zhou, 2023. "Assessing the Rural–Urban Transition of China during 1980–2020 from a Coordination Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Bartłomiej Marona & Annette Van den Beemt-Tjeerdsma, 2018. "Impact of Public Management Approaches on Municipal Real Estate Management in Poland and The Netherlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.
    7. Antonio Nesticò & Marianna La Marca, 2020. "Urban Real Estate Values and Ecosystem Disservices: An Estimate Model Based on Regression Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Daikun Wang & Victor Jing Li & Huayi Yu, 2020. "Mass Appraisal Modeling of Real Estate in Urban Centers by Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression: A Case Study of Beijing’s Core Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Yannis Psycharis & Anastasia Panori, 2023. "Small-Scale Socio-Economic Conditions And Residential Segregation: Evidence From The Municipalities Across The Metropolitan Region Of Attica," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 38-65, June.
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