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Dipendenza spaziale contemporanea e non contemporanea nei tassi di disoccupazione: un tentativo di analisi empirica dei dati provinciali italiani

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  • Massimiliano Agovino
  • Antonio Garofalo

Abstract

L?obiettivo del presente lavoro ? quello di analizzare il trend spazio-temporale dei tassi di disoccupazione delle province italiane attraverso l?uso di strumenti dell?econometria spaziale. A tale scopo, avvalendoci di tecniche ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis) e ESTDA (Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis) si indagher? la presenza di dipendenza spaziale contemporanea e non contemporanea nei tassi di disoccupazione. Dai risultati si evince che: la disoccupazione ? un fenomeno caratterizzato da persistenza spazio-temporale; uno shock nel tasso di disoccupazione che si manifesta nel passato in una data provincia continua a produrre i propri effetti nel presente nelle province a essa limitrofe. Di conseguenza, interventi di policy indirizzati alla provincia dove lo shock si ? generato non sono sufficienti ad arginare il problema prescindendo dal carattere non circoscritto n? temporaneo della disoccupazione.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Agovino & Antonio Garofalo, 2013. "Dipendenza spaziale contemporanea e non contemporanea nei tassi di disoccupazione: un tentativo di analisi empirica dei dati provinciali italiani," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(3), pages 45-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:restre:v:html10.3280/rest2013-003002
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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