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Geographical Distribution of Unemployment: An Analysis of Provincial Differences in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Francesca Cracolici

    () (University of Palermo)

  • Miranda Cuffaro

    () (University of Palermo)

  • Peter Nijkamp

    () (VU University, Amsterdam)

Abstract

Unemployment rates appear to vary widely at a subregional (e.g., local or provincial) level. Using spatial econometric models for spatial autocorrelation, this paper focuses attention on the spatial structure of regional unemployment disparities of Italian provinces. On the basis of findings from the economic literature and of the available socio-economic data, various model specifications including different explanatory variables are tested to investigate the geographical distribution of unemployment in the 103 provinces of Italy for the years 1998 and 2003. The results suggest that there is a clear explanation of unemployment differentials in terms of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium factors and a significant degree of spatial dependence among labour markets at the provincial level in Italy. Provinces marked by high unemployment, as well as those characterized by low unemployment, tend to be spatially clustered, demonstrating the presence of unemployment ‘persistency’ in space and time regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Francesca Cracolici & Miranda Cuffaro & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Geographical Distribution of Unemployment: An Analysis of Provincial Differences in Italy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-065/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070065
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    Keywords

    unemployment; spatial lag model; spatial autocorrelation; Italian provinces;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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