Employment, Unemployment and Demand Shifts in Local Labor Markets
This paper analyzes the effects of demand shifts within and between local labor markets on unemployment and employment levels and changes observed in those markets. Between-market demand shifts are measured by the means of sales growth for firms in each market, while within-market shifts are measured by variances in each. The variances are also decomposed into between-industry and within-industry components. Some firm-level evidence on job applicants, training and wage and employment adjustments in growing and declining firms is presented as well. The results show that demand shifts between markets account for large fractions of the observed variation in unemployment and employment rate levels and changes across markets. Within-area shifts cause much smaller and insignificant amounts of unemployment if they are between-industry, while shifts within areas and industries (accounting for the vast majority of demand shifts across firms) have no clear effects. The results therefore suggest that the unemployment effects of demand shifts depend on adjustment costs, which appear to be greatest for shifts between markets. Nonlinearities in estimated effects and growing dispersion of unemployment rates across areas also suggest that demand shifts may have raised aggregate unemployment in the U.S. in recent years.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1989|
|Publication status:||published as Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, no. 1 (1991): 25-32. Published as "Structural/Frictional and Demand-Deficient Unemployment in Local Labor Markets", Industrial Relations, Vol. 32, no. 3 (1993): 307-328.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Murphy, Kevin J & Hofler, Richard A, 1984. "Determinants of Geographic Unemployment Rates: A Selectively Pooled-Simultaneous Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 216-223, May.
- Harry J. Holzer & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1991. "Job Queues and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 739-768.
- Robert E. Hall, 1970. "Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 369-410.
- Nickell, S.J., 1987. "Dynamic models of labour demand," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 473-522 Elsevier.
- Joseph G. Altonji & John C. Ham, 1986.
"Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional and Industrial Factors,"
NBER Working Papers
1816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
- Jonathan S. Leonard, 1986. "In the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time: The Extent of Frictional and Structural Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson L., 1988.
"Plant Turnover And Gross Employment Flows In The U.S. Manufacturing Sector,"
9-87-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "Plant Turnover and Gross Employment Flows in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 48-71, January.
- Davis, Steven J, 1987. "Allocative Disturbances and Specific Capital in Real Business Cycle Theories," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 326-332, May.
- Evans, David S., 1986.
"Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth,"
86-36, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Stephen T. Marston, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1981. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 111-143, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.