Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?
This paper examines the impact of changes in labor market conditions on participation in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program in California. Transitions off welfare and transitions back onto welfare are estimated using discrete duration models that control for local labor market conditions, demographic and neighborhood characteristics, duration effects, county-fixed effects, time effects, and county-specific time trends. The results show that higher unemployment rates, lower employment growth, lower employment-to-population ratios, and lower wage growth are associated with longer welfare spells and higher recidivism rates. Hispanics, blacks, and two-parent families are the groups that are most sensitive to changes in local labor market conditions. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Volume (Year): 82 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John M. Fitzgerald, 1995. "Local labor markets and local area effects on welfare duration," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 43-67.
- Greg Duncan & Saul Hoffman, 1990. "Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 519-535, November.
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- O'Connell, Philip J. & Russell, Helen & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Human Resources," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.), Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013 Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1988.
"Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells,"
NBER Working Papers
2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:mpr:mprres:652 is not listed on IDEAS
- Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 1993.
"Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-96, August.
- John Bound & Harry J. Holzer, 1991. "Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males," NBER Working Papers 3715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cain, Glen G & Finnie, Ross E, 1990. "The Black-White Difference in Youth Employment: Evidence for Demand-Side Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages S364-95, January.
- David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Targeting Would-Be Long-Term Recipients of AFDC," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 35f03eda0fa0455aa0dc255fb, Mathematica Policy Research.
- Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
- Holzer, Harry J, 1991.
"Employment, Unemployment and Demand Shifts in Local Labor Markets,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-32, February.
- Harry J. Holzer, 1989. "Employment, Unemployment and Demand Shifts in Local Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 2858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
- Hoynes, Hilary & MaCurdy, Thomas, 1994. "Has the Decline in Benefits Shortened Welfare Spells?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 43-48, May.
- Hilary Hoynes, 1993.
"Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation Under AFDC-UP,"
NBER Working Papers
4407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
- O'Neill, June A & Bassi, Laurie J & Wolf, Douglas A, 1987. "The Duration of Welfare Spells," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 241-48, May.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1983. "An Economic Model of Welfare Stigma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1023-35, December.
- J. Fitzgerald, . "A hazard model for welfare durations with unobserved location-specific effects," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1046-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:82:y:2000:i:3:p:351-368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kristin Waites)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.