IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5643.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Hilary Williamson Hoynes

Abstract

This paper examines the role of local labor markets in determining how long families receive benefits from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. Given the current policy emphasis on devolution and reducing the AFDC caseload through employment, understanding the role of local labor demand is important. The study uses a unique data set based on administrative data which has detailed information on welfare spells for over 100,000 AFDC cases. The empirical work is based on estimates of a duration model where the hazard rate is a function of demographic characteristics, local labor market variables, neighborhood characteristics, county fixed effects and time effects Several alternative measures of local labor market conditions are used and the results show that higher unemployment rates, lower employment growth, lower employment to population ratios, and lower wage growth are associated with longer welfare spells. On average, a typical employment fluctuation over the business cycle, if permanent, would lead to an 8-10 percent reduction in AFDC caseload. Typical changes in real quarterly earnings generate somewhat smaller effects. The combined effect of these two changes,if permanent, would lead to sizeable reductions in the caseload, on the order of 15 percent. The estimated labor market effects are robust to including county level fixed effects and time effects. AFDC-UP participants, blacks, and residents of urban areas are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions while teen parents and refugee groups are found to be much less sensitive to changes in local labor market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 1996. "Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5643
    Note: PE LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5643.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
    2. O'Connell, Philip J. & Russell, Helen & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Human Resources," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Hoynes, Hilary & MaCurdy, Thomas, 1994. "Has the Decline in Benefits Shortened Welfare Spells?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 43-48, May.
    4. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
    5. O'Neill, June A & Bassi, Laurie J & Wolf, Douglas A, 1987. "The Duration of Welfare Spells," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 241-248, May.
    6. Moffitt, Robert, 1983. "An Economic Model of Welfare Stigma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1023-1035, December.
    7. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, August.
    8. Holzer, Harry J, 1991. "Employment, Unemployment and Demand Shifts in Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-32, February.
    9. Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 1993. "Industrial Shifts, Skills Levels, and the Labor Market for White and Black Males," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-396, August.
    11. repec:mpr:mprres:652 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. J. Fitzgerald, "undated". "A hazard model for welfare durations with unobserved location-specific effects," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1046-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    13. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    14. James Annable, 1984. "Analysis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 59-61, May.
    15. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    16. repec:mpr:mprres:2734 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    19. David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Targeting Would-Be Long-Term Recipients of AFDC," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 35f03eda0fa0455aa0dc255fb, Mathematica Policy Research.
    20. Michael C. Munger, 1984. "Analysis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 54-58, January.
    21. Greg Duncan & Saul Hoffman, 1990. "Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 519-535, November.
    22. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    23. Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
    24. John M. Fitzgerald, 1995. "Local labor markets and local area effects on welfare duration," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 43-67.
    25. Cain, Glen G & Finnie, Ross E, 1990. "The Black-White Difference in Youth Employment: Evidence for Demand-Side Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 364-395, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Klawitter & R. Plotnick & M. Edwards, "undated". "Determinants of welfare entry and exit by young women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1099-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    2. J. Cao, "undated". "Welfare recipiency and welfare recidivism: An analysis of the NLSY data," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1081-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    3. James R. Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Note: For best results & the figures should be printed on a non-Postscript printer. Hoynes & H., "undated". "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less-Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1199-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    5. Geert Ridder & Yingyao Hu, 2004. "Estimation of Nonlinear Models with Measurement Error Using Marginal Information," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 21, Econometric Society.
    6. Mairead Reidy & Lucy Mackey-Bilaver & Robert M. Goerge & Yizu Yeh & Bong Joo Lee, 1998. "The Dynamics of AFDC, Medicaid, and Food Stamps: A Preliminary Report," JCPR Working Papers 48, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    7. Mark C. Berger & Dan A. Black, 1998. "The Duration Of Medicaid Spells: An Analysis Using Flow And Stock Samples," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 667-675, November.
    8. James Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Yingyao Hu & Geert Ridder, 2012. "Estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured regressors using marginal information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 347-385, April.
    10. Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix, 1997. "Welfare Benefits, Minimum Wage Rate and the Duration of Welfare Spells: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-25, CIRANO.
    11. Ziliak, Stephen T., 1997. "Kicking the Malthusian vice: Lessons from the abolition of "welfare" in the late nineteenth century," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 449-468.
    12. Greg Duncan & Rachel Dunifon & Morgan Ward Doran & W. Jean Yeung, 1998. "How Different ARE Welfare and Working Families? And Do Those Differences Matter for Children's Achievement?," JCPR Working Papers 38, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    13. R. L. Hanson & J. T. Hartman, "undated". "Do welfare magnets attract?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1028-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    14. Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. G. Sandefur & S. Cook, "undated". "Duration of Public Assistance Receipt: Is Welfare a Trap?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1129-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    16. Susan E Mayer, 2000. "Why Welfare Caseloads Fluctuate: A Review of Research on AFDC, SSI, and the Food Stamps Program," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    17. R. Plotnick & M. Klawitter & M. Edwards, "undated". "Do Attitudes and Personality Characteristics Affect Socioeconomic Outcomes? The Case of Welfare Use by Young Women," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1161-98, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    18. Davis, Elizabeth E. & Bosley, Stacie A., 2005. "THE IMPACT OF THE 1990s ECONOMIC BOOM ON LESS-EDUCATED WORKERS IN RURAL AMERICA," Working Papers 18918, Oregon State University, Rural Poverty Research Center (RPRC).
    19. Welch, Shawn M., 1998. "Nonparametric estimates of the duration of welfare spells," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 217-221, August.
    20. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5643. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.