Welfare recipiency and welfare recidivism: An analysis of the NLSY data
This paper analyzes welfare recipiency and recidivism of first-time AFDC recipients over the 168-month (14-year) period from January 1978 to December 1991 using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) database. Duration of a single AFDC spell is short, but repeated welfare dependency is common. On average, 57 percent of former AFDC recipients return to the rolls after an exit and most of them come back within two years. Having a newborn is the most important direct cause for going on the AFDC rolls and for recidivism. The results from bivariate duration models suggest a negative correlation due to unobserved heterogeneity between the previous welfare recipiency and recidivism. An inverted U-shaped hazard function is found for both the first and second spells on AFDC and the intervening off-AFDC spell. Age, years of education or AFQT score, martial status, ethnic origin, and region are the significant correlates with a recipient's initial welfare dependency and recidivism. However, few variables have significant effects on the duration of the second AFDC spell and off-AFDC spell at the conventional statistical level.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (608) 262-6358
Fax: (608) 265-3119
Web page: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/dp/dplist.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Meyer, Bruce D, 1990.
"Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
- Blank, Rebecca M & Ruggles, Patricia, 1994. "Short-Term Recidivism among Public-Assistance Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 49-53, May.
- P. D. Brandon, . "Vulnerability to future dependence among former AFDC mothers," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1055-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Bergstrom, R & Edin, P-A, 1992.
"Time Aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, Jan.-Marc.
- Edin, P.A. & Bergstrom, R., 1991. "Time aggregation and the Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration," Papers 1991u, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January.
- Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
- Swaim, Paul & Podgursky, Michael, 1992. "The Distributional Shape of Unemployment Duration: A Reconsideration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 712-17, November.
- Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
- Blank, Rebecca M., 1989. "Analyzing the length of welfare spells," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-273, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:wispod:1081-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.