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Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis

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  • James J. Heckman
  • Christopher R. Taber

Abstract

This paper considers models for unobservables in duration models. It demonstrates how cross-section and time-series variation in regressors facilitates identification of single-spell, competing risks and multiple spell duration models. We also demonstrate the limited value of traditional identification studies by considering a case in which a model is identified in the conventional sense but cannot be consistently estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • James J. Heckman & Christopher R. Taber, 1994. "Econometric Mixture Models and More General Models for Unobservables in Duration Analysis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    2. J. Heckman & B. Singer, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241.
    3. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    4. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
    5. Honore, Bo E, 1990. "Simple Estimation of a Duration Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 453-473, March.
    6. McCall, B.P., 1993. "Identifying State Dependence in Duration Models with Time-Varying Regressions," Papers 93-06, Minnesota - Industrial Relations Center.
    7. Heckman, James J, 1991. "Identifying the Hand of the Past: Distinguishing State Dependence from Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 75-79, May.
    8. Chris Elbers & Geert Ridder, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 403-409.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peng, Yingwei & Zhang, Jiajia, 2008. "Identifiability of a mixture cure frailty model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(16), pages 2604-2608, November.
    2. Abbring, Jaap H., 2003. "Dynamic Econometric Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 804, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Xiaohong Chen & James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2000. "Identification and SQRT N Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Panel Data Models with Binary Dependent Variables and a Latent Factor," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1567, Econometric Society.
    4. Garczorz, Ingo, 2001. "Anwendung der Hazard-Analyse im Marketing: Einführung und Literaturüberblick," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 548, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    5. Richardson, Katarina & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2006. "Swedish Labor Market Training and the Duration of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 2314, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "Dynamically assigned treatments: duration models, binary treatment models, and panel data models," Working Paper Series 2002:20, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    7. J. Cao, "undated". "Welfare recipiency and welfare recidivism: An analysis of the NLSY data," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1081-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    8. Jaap Abbring & James Heckman, 2008. "Dynamic policy analysis," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes," Working Paper Series 2005:11, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    10. Jaap H. Abbring, 0000. "Mixed Hitting-Time Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-057/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Aug 2009.
    11. Brinch,C., 2000. "Identification of structural duration dependence and unobserved heterogeneity with time-varying," Memorandum 20/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    12. Bo E. Honoré & Aureo de Paula, 2009. ""Interdependent Durations" Third Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Feb 2008.
    13. Thomas Andren & Daniela Andren, 2006. "Assessing the employment effects of vocational training using a one-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2469-2486.
    14. Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den, 2000. "The non-parametric identification of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Serie Research Memoranda 0024, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    15. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2007. "The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 87-99.
    16. Jaap H. Abbring, 2012. "Mixed Hitting‐Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 783-819, March.
    17. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
    18. Falavigna Falavigna & Elena Ragazzi & Lisa Sella, "undated". "Vocational training and labour market: inclusion or segregation paths? An integrated approach on immigrant trainees in Piedmont," CERIS Working Paper 201425, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    19. Jaap H. Abbring, 2010. "Identification of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 367-394, September.
    20. Bo E. Honore & Aureo de Paula, 2007. "Interdependent Durations, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-044, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Nov 2008.
    21. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2000. "The Non-Parametric Identification of the Mixed Proportional Hazards Competing Risks Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-066/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
    23. Ott-Siim Toomet, 2005. "Does an Increase in Unemployment Income Lead to Longer Unemployment Spells? Evidence Using Danish Unemployment Assistance Data," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    24. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2000. "The Scientific Contributions of James Heckman and Daniel McFadden," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2000-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    25. Richardson, Katarina & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2008. "Duration dependence versus unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects: Swedish labor market training and the transition rate to employment," Working Paper Series 2008:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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