Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models
In survival analysis a large literature using frailty models, or models with unobserved heterogeneity, exist. In the growing literate on multiple spell multiple states duration models, or multistate models, modeling this issue is only at its infant phase. Ignoring unobserved heteogeneity can, however, produce incorrect results. This paper presents how unobserved heterogeneity can be incorporated into multistate models, with an emphasis on semi-Markov multistate models with a mixed proportional hazard structure. First, the aspects of frailty modeling in univariate (proportional hazard, Cox) duration models are addressed and some important models with unobserved heterogeneity are discussed. Second, the domain is extended to modeling of parallel/clustered multivariate duration data with unobserved heterogeneity. The implications of choosing shared or correlated unobserved heterogeneity is highlighted. The relevant differences with recurrent events data is covered next. They include the choice of the time scale and risk set which both have important implications for the way unobserved heterogeneity influence the model. Multistate duration models can have both parallel and recurrent events. Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in multistate models, therefore, brings all the previously addressed issues together. Although some estimation procedures are covered the emphasis is on conceptual issues. The importance of including unobserved heterogeneity in multistate duration models is illustrated with data on labour market and migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989.
"Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
- Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte, 1987. "Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models," NBER Working Papers 2445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2007.
"The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2007. "The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 87-99.
- Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982.
"Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?,"
NBER Working Papers
0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
- Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July.
- James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
- Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001.
"Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations,"
Handbook of Econometrics,
in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luc Duchateau & Paul Janssen & Iva Kezic & Catherine Fortpied, 2003. "Evolution of recurrent asthma event rate over time in frailty models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(3), pages 355-363.
- Gerda Claeskens & Rosemary Nguti & Paul Janssen, 2008. "One-sided tests in shared frailty models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 69-82, May.
- Bonnal, Liliane & Fougere, Denis & Serandon, Anne, 1997. "Evaluating the Impact of French Employment Policies on Individual Labour Market Histories," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-713, October.
- Courgeau, Daniel & Lelievre, Eva, 1993. "Event History Analysis in Demography," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287384, March.
- Geert Ridder & Tiemen Woutersen, 2001. "The Singularity of the Efficiency Bound of the Mixed Proportional Hazard Model," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 20019, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
- van den Berg, Gerard J., 1997. "Association measures for durations in bivariate hazard rate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 221-245, August.
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- Bijwaard, G.E., 2009.
"Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2009-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Bijwaard, G.E. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2003.
"Modeling purchases as repeated events,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2003-45, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Heckman, J & Singer, B, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 231-41, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.