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Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics

  • Bijwaard, G.E.

In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeat migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. We discuss one-step ahead transitions from all four states and the transition probability, including all intermediate transitions, from employment. Based on the estimated parameters we simulate the labour-migration dynamics for a synthetic cohort to derive relevant economic indicators, e.g. the probability of experiencing an unemployment spell. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. The microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. They also indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. An increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to more dynamics. We do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/17016/EI2009-25.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2009-25.

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Date of creation: 19 Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:17016
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Web page: http://www.eur.nl/ese
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  1. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  2. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  3. Jörgen Hansen & Magnus Lofstrom, 2010. "Immigrant Assimilation and Welfare Participation: Do Immigrants Assimilate Into or Out-of Welfare," Working Papers id:2647, eSocialSciences.
  4. Hansen, Jörgen & Löfström, Magnus, 2001. "The Dynamics of Immigrant Welfare and Labour Market Behaviour," CEPR Discussion Papers 3028, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Arne Uhlendorff & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2006. "Unemployment Dynamics among Migrants and Natives," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 617, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004. "Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosenzweig, 1982. "Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 279-290, August.
  8. Kirdar, Murat G., 2008. "Estimating the impact of immigrants on the host country social security system when return migration is an endogenous choice," MPRA Paper 7803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hill, John K., 1987. "Immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 221-234, February.
  10. Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 27-39, January.
  11. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  12. Tomi Kyyrä, 2009. "Marginal Effects for Competing Risks Models with Piecewise Constant Hazards," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 539-565, 08.
  13. Larry Long & C. Tucker & William Urton, 1988. "Migration distances: An international comparison," Demography, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 633-640, November.
  14. Bailey, Adrian J, 1993. "Migration History, Migration Behavior and Selectivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 315-26, December.
  15. Barry R. Chiswick & Yinon Cohen & Tzippi Zach, 1997. "The labor market status of immigrants: Effects of the unemployment rate at arrival and duration of residence," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(2), pages 289-303, January.
  16. Borjas, George J & Hilton, Lynette, 1996. "Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 575-604, May.
  17. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  19. repec:dgr:uvatin:20010042 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
  21. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
  22. Chiswick, Barry R, 1978. "The Effect of Americanization on the Earnings of Foreign-born Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 897-921, October.
  23. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
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