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Modeling migration dynamics of immigrants: the case of the Netherlands

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  • Bijwaard, G.E.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. We can conclude that for a complete view of the migration dynamics it is important to allow for both permanent (stayers) migrants and temporary (movers) migrants and that return from abroad should not be neglected.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, G.E., 2007. "Modeling migration dynamics of immigrants: the case of the Netherlands," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:9263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003. "Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    3. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    4. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    5. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    6. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-176, February.
    7. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
    8. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2001. "Migration and Immigrants: The Case of the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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    10. Dustmann, Christian, 2000. "Temporary Migration and Economic Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Zorlu, Aslan & Hartog, Joop, 2008. "Employment Assimilation of Immigrants in the Netherlands: Catching Up and the Irrelevance of Education," IZA Discussion Papers 3534, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration dynamics; mover-stayer model; return migration;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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