The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likelywhen they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
- Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004.
"Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003. "Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "Circular Movements and Time Away from the Host Country," IZA Discussion Papers 960, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
- Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996.
"Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
- Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003.
"Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.