IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwsop/diw_sp79.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Determines the Duration of Stay of Immigrants in Germany?: Evidence from a Longitudinal Duration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Gundel
  • Heiko Peters

Abstract

We analyze the return-migration of German immigrants using the latest data of the German Socio- Economic Panel from 1984 to 2006. We conduct a Cox proportional hazard model with years of residence in Germany as waiting time. The analysis reveals that return migration is heavily influenced by country of origin. Individuals from countries with free labor movement agreements with Germany show a considerably higher likelihood of leaving the country relative to the others. The main finding is, with respect to the self-selection process we discovered that highly skilled are more likely to return than the less skilled. In addition, the results give plenty of information regarding the design of German immigration policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Gundel & Heiko Peters, 2008. "What Determines the Duration of Stay of Immigrants in Germany?: Evidence from a Longitudinal Duration Analysis," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 79, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.78211.de/diw_sp0079.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    2. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    3. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
    4. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
    6. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," Development Working Papers 326, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    7. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    8. Christian Dustmann, 2003. "Children and return migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 815-830, November.
    9. Monika Sander, 2007. "Return Migration and the "Healthy Immigrant Effect"," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 60, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Marianne Røed & Oded Stark, 1998. "On the Optimal Duration of Migration," International Economic Association Series, in: Yair Mundlak (ed.), Contemporary Economic Issues, chapter 7, pages 133-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-559, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2017. "Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 542-564, June.
    2. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
    3. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 715-735, November.
    5. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence From Philippine Migrants%u2019 Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    7. Peter Bönisch & Philipp Gaffert & Joachim Wilde, 2013. "The impact of skills on remigration flows," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 511-524, February.
    8. KIrdar, Murat G., 2009. "Labor market outcomes, savings accumulation, and return migration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 418-428, August.
    9. Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2012. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 362-388, June.
    10. Faruk, Balli & Syed Abul, Basher & Rosmy, Jean Louis & Ahmed Saber, Mahmud, 2016. "On the global determinants of visiting home," MPRA Paper 72291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Constant, Amelie F., 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 446, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Jackline Wahba, 2014. "Return migration and economic development," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 12, pages 327-349, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Tiwari, Smriti, 2021. "Do macroeconomic fluctuations at destination matter in determining migrants’ return decisions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. Sylvie Démurger & Hui Xu, 2011. "Left-Behind Children and Return Decisions of Rural Migrants in China," Post-Print halshs-00625636, HAL.
    15. Kirdar, Murat, 2009. "Source Country Characteristics and Immigrants’ Migration Duration and Saving Decisions," MPRA Paper 13322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zakharenko, Roman, 2007. "Migration, Learning, and Development," MPRA Paper 6262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Huber & Martin Spielauer, 2020. "Return and Onward Migration and Labour Market Entry. Empirical Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria," WIFO Working Papers 616, WIFO.
    18. Piracha, Matloob & Vadean, Florin, 2009. "Return Migration and Occupational Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 3922, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Faini, Riccardo & Strom, Steinar & Venturini, Alessandra & Villosio, Claudia, 2009. "Are Foreign Migrants More Assimilated Than Native Ones?," IZA Discussion Papers 4639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Remigration; Cox proportional hazard model; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. SOEP based publications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sodiwde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.