The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2003|
|Publication status:||published in: International Migration Review, 2012, 46 (2), 361-387|
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- Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003.
"Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004. "Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "Circular Movements and Time Away from the Host Country," IZA Discussion Papers 960, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002. "Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-176, February.
- George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
- DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-559, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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