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Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics

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  • Bijwaard, Govert

    () (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

Abstract

In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeated migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. Microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. Scenarios based on microsimulation indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. Scenarios also indicate that an increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to higher labour market and migration dynamics. Finally, based on microsimulation we do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast.

Suggested Citation

  • Bijwaard, Govert, 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 4530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4530
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    1. Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Govert E. Bijwaard & Christian Schluter & Jackline Wahba, 2014. "The Impact of Labor Market Dynamics on the Return Migration of Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 483-494, July.
    2. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    3. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    4. Bijwaard, Govert, 2011. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models," IZA Discussion Papers 5748, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Govert Bijwaard, 2014. "Multistate event history analysis with frailty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(58), pages 1591-1620, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration dynamics; labour market transitions; competing risks; immigrant assimilation;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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