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Unemployment Dynamics among Migrants and Natives


  • Uhlendorff, Arne
  • Zimmermann, Klaus F


Unemployment rates are often higher for migrants than for natives. This could result from longer periods of unemployment as well as from shorter periods of employment. This paper jointly examines male native-migrant differences in the duration of unemployment and subsequent employment using German panel data and bivariate discrete time hazard rate models. Compared to natives with the same observable and unobservable characteristics, unemployed migrants do not find less stable positions but they need more time to find these jobs. The probability of leaving unemployment also varies strongly between ethnicities, while first and second generation Turks are identified as the major problem group. Therefore, policy should concentrate on the job finding process of Turkish migrants to fight their disadvantages on the labour market.

Suggested Citation

  • Uhlendorff, Arne & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2006. "Unemployment Dynamics among Migrants and Natives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5872

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
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    3. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
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    5. Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Unemployment duration and economic incentives--a quasi random-assignment approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1799-1825, October.
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    7. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
    8. Belzil, Christian, 2000. "Unemployment Insurance and Subsequent Job Duration: Job Matching vs Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 116, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    10. Arne Uhlendorff, 2003. "Der Einfluss von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 338, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    More about this item


    bivariate hazard rate models; employment stability; ethnicity; migration; unemployment duration;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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