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Scarring Effects of Remaining Unemployed for Long-Term Unemployed School-Leavers

  • Bart Cockx
  • Matteo Picchio

This study investigates whether and to what extent further unemployment experience for youths who are already long-term unemployed imposes a penalty on subsequent labor market outcomes. We propose a flexible method for analyzing the effect on wages aside of transitions from unemployment and employment within a multivariate duration model that controls for selection on observables and unobservables. We find that prolonging unemployment drastically decreases the chances of finding employment, but hardly affects the quality of subsequent employment. The analysis suggests that negative duration dependence in the job finding rate is induced by negative signaling and not by human capital depreciation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-08/cesifo1_wp3565.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3565.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3565
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  1. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
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  25. Christian Belzil, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and subsequent job duration: job matching versus unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 619-636.
  26. Brian McCall & Wei Chi, . "Unemployment Insurance, Unemployment Durations and Re-employment Wages," Working Papers 0306, Human Resources and Labor Studies, University of Minnesota (Twin Cities Campus).
  27. Linda Datcher Loury, 2006. "Some Contacts Are More Equal than Others: Informal Networks, Job Tenure, and Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 299-318, April.
  28. Doiron, Denise & Gørgens, Tue, 2008. "State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 81-97, July.
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