IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dul/wpaper/07-19rs.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Matthew effect of unemployment: how does it affect wages in Belgium

Author

Listed:
  • Amynah Vanessa Gangji
  • Robert Plasman

Abstract

Better understand the consequences of unemployment in terms of labour market opportunities as well as psychological well-being is of primary importance for any policies aimed at reducing unemployment. One way by which unemployment may impact on future labour market outcomes is through a reduction of subsequent earnings. This study therefore investigates the effects of the incidence and duration of unemployment on re-entry wages in Belgium using the Panel Study on Belgian Households for the period 1994-2002. The methodology used is based on a fixed effects model controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and sample selection bias. Results suggest that unemployment most often has a detrimental effect in terms of future labour market prospects. In other words, it can hardly be seen as an investment period allowing the unemployed to find a better match afterwards. The unemployment penalty may vanish if the unemployed find a stable job. However they are most often characterized by smaller average number of tenure years than individuals who did not go through such an experience. Consequently there is a risk that individuals having experienced unemployment will never be able to eliminate the wage penalty if they do not enter into stable job. Finally, we have found robust evidence that the wage penalty increases as the unemployment spell lengthens. This result is particularly alarming given the high proportion of long term unemployment in Belgium. These conclusions imply that unemployment costs go beyond the simple loss of income and human capital associated with job loss. This implies a substantial leeway for public intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Amynah Vanessa Gangji & Robert Plasman, 2007. "The Matthew effect of unemployment: how does it affect wages in Belgium," DULBEA Working Papers 07-19.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-19rs
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/7884/1/rp-0063.pdf
    File Function: rp-0063
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Bender & Christian Dustmann & David Margolis & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Worker Displacement in France and Germany," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00370611, HAL.
    2. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 319-324, March.
    3. Alfonso Rosolia & Gilles Saint Paul, 1998. "The effect of unemployment spells on subsequent wages in Spain," Economics Working Papers 295, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Danièle Meulders & François Rycx & Robert Plasman, 2004. "Minimum Wages, low pay and unemployment: introduction," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7704, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. David Margolis, 1999. "Worker Displacement in France," Post-Print halshs-00370401, HAL.
    6. Stephen Nickell & Patricia Jones & Glenda Quintini, 2002. "A Picture of Job Insecurity Facing British Men," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Arranz, Jose M. & Davia, Maria A. & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 2005. "Labour market transitions and wage dynamics in Europe," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-17, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    9. Amynah Gangji & Robert Plasman, 2008. "Microeconomic analysis of unemployment persistence in Belgium," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 280-298, June.
    10. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    11. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-659, May.
    12. Leonard, Jonathan & Van Audenrode, Marc, 1995. "The Duration of Unemployment and the Persistence of Wages," CEPR Discussion Papers 1227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Arnaud Lefranc, 2002. "Labor Market Dynamics and Wage Losses of Displaced Workers in France and the United-States," THEMA Working Papers 2002-15, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    14. Paul Gregg & Emma Tominey, 2004. "The Wage Scar from Youth Unemployment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 04/097, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    15. Kenneth A. Couch, 2001. "Earnings Losses and Unemployment of Displaced Workers in Germany," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(3), pages 559-572, April.
    16. Anna Cristina d'Addio & Isabelle De Greef & Michael Rosholm, 2002. "Assessing Unemployment Traps in Belgium using Panel Data Sample Selection models," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C1-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    17. Addison, John T & Portugal, Pedro, 1989. "Job Displacement, Relative Wage Changes, and Duration of Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 281-302, July.
    18. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    19. Davia, Maria A., 2005. "Job mobility and wage mobility at the beginning of the working career: a comparative view across Europe," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Bruce C. Fallick, 1996. "A Review of the Recent Empirical Literature on Displaced Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(1), pages 5-16, October.
    21. William J. Carrington, 1993. "Wage Losses for Displaced Workers: Is It Really the Firm That Matters?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(3), pages 435-462.
    22. Burda, Michael C. & Mertens, Antje, 2001. "Estimating wage losses of displaced workers in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-41, January.
    23. Matthew Gray, 2000. "The Effects of Unemployment on the Earnings of Young Australians," CEPR Discussion Papers 419, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    24. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, January.
    25. Sara de la Rica, 1995. "Evidence of Preseparation Earnings Losses in the Displaced Worker Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(3), pages 610-621.
    26. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-283, August.
    27. Peter J. Kuhn (ed.), 2002. "Losing Work, Moving On: International Perspectives on Worker Displacement," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number lwmo.
    28. Danièle Meulders & Robert Plasman & François Rycx, 2004. "Minimum wages, low pay and unemployment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7740, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    29. Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1987. "Job Displacement and Earnings Loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(1), pages 17-29, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Luc Demeulemeester & Olivier Debande, 2008. "Quality and Variety Competition in Higher Education," Working Papers 08-10, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Bernal, Oscar & Oosterlinck, Kim & Szafarz, Ariane, 2010. "Observing bailout expectations during a total eclipse of the sun," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1205, November.
    3. Ariane Szafarz, 2007. "Hiring people-like-yourself: a representation of discrimination on the job market," DULBEA Working Papers 07-21.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Corinna Ghirelli, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, December.
    5. Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2013. "Scarring effects of remaining unemployed for long-term unemployed school-leavers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(4), pages 951-980, October.
    6. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Hassan Ayoub & Jérôme Creel & Etienne Farvaque, 2008. "Détermination du niveau des prix et finances: le cas du Liban 1965-2005," DULBEA Working Papers 08-10.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Benoît Mahy & François Rycx & Mélanie Volral, 2008. "L'influence de la dispersion salariale sur la performance des grandes entreprises belges," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 27-40.
    9. Charles Plaigin, 2009. "Exploratory study on the presence of cultural and institutional growth spillovers," DULBEA Working Papers 09-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    11. Sile Padraigin O'Dorchai, 2008. "Pay inequality in 25 European countries," DULBEA Working Papers 0006, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Corinna GHIRELLI, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment in a rigid labour market," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    13. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Labor market discrimination as an agency cost," DULBEA Working Papers 08-19.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Caroline Gerschlager, 2008. "Foolishness and identity: Amartya Sen and Adam Smith," DULBEA Working Papers 08-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Corinna.Ghirelli, 2014. "The scarring effect of early non-employment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/895, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Abdeslam Marfouk, 2008. "The African brain drain: scope and determinants," DULBEA Working Papers 08-07.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Carneiro, Anabela & Portugal, Pedro, 2006. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers: Evidence from a Matched Employer-Employee Data Set," IZA Discussion Papers 2289, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Appelqvist, Jukka, 2007. "Wage and Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers in Finland," Discussion Papers 422, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Arnaud Lefranc, 2002. "Labor Market Dynamics and Wage Losses of Displaced Workers in France and the United-States," THEMA Working Papers 2002-15, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    5. David S. Kaplan & Raymond Robertson & Gabriel Martínez González, 2005. "What Happens to Wages after Displacement?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 197-242, January.
    6. Ossi Korkeamäki & Jukka Appelqvist & Tomi Kyyrä, 2007. "Quantile Regression Estimates of the Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," EcoMod2007 23900045, EcoMod.
    7. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Loss of skill during unemployment and TFP differences across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 215-235.
    8. Verho, Jouko, 2008. "Scars of recession: the long-term costs of the Finnish economic crisis," Working Paper Series 2008:9, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    9. Huttunen, Kristiina & Moen, Jarle & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2006. "How Destructive Is Creative Destruction? The Costs of Worker Displacement," IZA Discussion Papers 2316, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Burda, Michael C. & Mertens, Antje, 2001. "Estimating wage losses of displaced workers in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-41, January.
    11. Kyyrä, Tomi & Korkeamäki, Ossi, 2008. "A Distributional Analysis of Displacement Costs in an Economic Depression and Recovery," Discussion Papers 465, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Arranz, Jose M. & Davia, Maria A. & Garcia-Serrano, Carlos, 2005. "Labour market transitions and wage dynamics in Europe," ISER Working Paper Series 2005-17, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    13. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2017. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 688-722, October.
    14. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2014. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2017. "Explaining wage losses after job displacement: Employer size and lost firm rents," IWH Discussion Papers 32/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Nóirín McCarthy & Peter W. Wright, 2018. "The Impact of Displacement on the Earnings of Workers in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 373-417.
    17. Paul Gregg & Emma Tominey, 2004. "The Wage Scar from Youth Unemployment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 04/097, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    18. Paul Jackson & Victor Ortego-Marti, 2020. "Skill Loss during Unemployment and the Scarring Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 202020, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    19. Simone Balestra & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2017. "When a Door Closes, a Window Opens? Long-Term Labor Market Effects of Involuntary Separations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, February.
    20. William J. Carrington, 2015. "Do We Know Why Earnings Fall with Job Displacement? Working Paper: 2015-01," Working Papers 49908, Congressional Budget Office.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment incidence and duration; wage penalty; fixed effects model; sample selection bias.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dul:wpaper:07-19rs. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dulbebe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dulbebe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.