IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

  • Bart Cockx
  • Matteo Picchio

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 74 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 646-675

in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:5:p:646-675
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gritz, R. Mark, 1993. "The impact of training on the frequency and duration of employment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 21-51.
  3. Fernando Muñoz-Bullón & J. Ignacio García-Pérez, 2007. "Transitions into Permanent Employment in Spain:An Empirical Analysis for Young Workers," Working Papers 2007-09, FEDEA.
  4. Yannis M. Ioannides & Linda Datcher Loury, 2004. "Job Information Networks, Neighborhood Effects, and Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1056-1093, December.
  5. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones or Dead Ends?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 8, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  6. Guillaume HORNY & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009. "Identification of Lagged Duration Dependence in Multiple Spells Competing Risks Models," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Casquel, Elena & Cunyat, Antoni, 2008. "Temporary contracts, employment protection and skill: A simple model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 333-336, September.
  8. Ramon Marimon & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1997. "Unemployment vs. Mismatch of Talents: Reconsidering Unemployment Benefits," NBER Working Papers 6038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David H. Autor & Susan N. Houseman, . "Do Temporary-Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from "Work First"," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles dhasnh2010, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  10. Doiron, Denise & Gørgens, Tue, 2008. "State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 81-97, July.
  11. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping Stones for the Unemployed: The Effect of Temporary Jobs on the Duration until Regular Work," IZA Discussion Papers 1241, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley & Eric Smith, 2003. "Asset Accumulation and Short Term Employment," CAM Working Papers 2003-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
  13. Bart L. W. Cockx, 2000. "Analysis Of Transition Data By The Minimum-Chi-Square Method: An Application To Welfare Spells In Belgium," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 392-405, August.
  14. Addison, John T. & Surfield, Christopher J., 2006. "Does Atypical Work Help the Jobless? Evidence from a CAEAS/CPS Cohort Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Ichino, Andrea & Mealli, Fabrizia & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2006. "From Temporary Help Jobs to Permanent Employment: What Can We Learn from Matching Estimators and their Sensitivity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2008. "The Impacts of Labor Market Policies on Job Search Behavior and Post-Unemployment Job Quality," IZA Discussion Papers 3802, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January.
  18. Robert Gibbons & Lawrence Katz, 1989. "Layoffs and Lemons," NBER Working Papers 2968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  21. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2005. "Time and Causality: A Monte Carlo Assessment of the Timing-of-Events Approach," Memorandum 19/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  22. Thomas A. Mroz & Timothy H. Savage, 2006. "The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
  23. Michael Kvasnicka, 2009. "Does Temporary Help Work Provide a Stepping Stone to Regular Employment?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Labor Market Intermediation, pages 335-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Carolyn J. Heinrich & Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth R. Troske, 2007. "The Role of Temporary Help Employment in Low-wage Worker Advancement," NBER Working Papers 13520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Farber, Henry S., 1999. "Mobility and stability: The dynamics of job change in labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 2439-2483 Elsevier.
  26. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
  27. Lockwood, Ben, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 733-53, July.
  28. Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2006. "Unemployment Insurance in Europe: Unemployment Duration and Subsequent Employment Stability," IZA Discussion Papers 2280, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  29. Burdett, Kenneth, 1979. "Unemployment Insurance Payments as a Search Subsidy: A Theoretical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 333-43, July.
  30. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  31. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  32. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Working Paper Series 481, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  33. Hagen, Tobias, 2003. "Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-49, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  34. Bhargava, Alok, 1991. "Identification and Panel Data Models with Endogenous Regressors," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 129-40, January.
  35. Fabio Berton & Francesco Devicienti & Lia Pacelli, 2007. "Temporary jobs: Port of entry, Trap, or just Unobserved Heterogeneity?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 68, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  36. Christian Belzil, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and subsequent job duration: job matching versus unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 619-636.
  37. Omori, Yoshiaki, 1998. "The Identifiability of Independent Competing Risks Models with Multiple Spells," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(1), pages 107-16, February.
  38. Andersson, Fredrik & Holzer, Harry J. & Lane, Julia, 2007. "Temporary Help Agencies and the Advancement Prospects of Low Earners," IZA Discussion Papers 3113, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  39. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey, 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 487-535, October.
  40. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710.
  41. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Malo, Miguel & Muñoz-Bullón, Fernando, 2006. "The Role of Temporary Help Agencies in Facilitating Temp-to-Perm Transitions," IZA Discussion Papers 2177, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  42. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:2:p:439-79 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Brinch, Christian N., 2007. "Nonparametric Identification Of The Mixed Hazards Model With Time-Varying Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 349-354, April.
  44. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
  45. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1988. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," NBER Working Papers 2649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:5:p:646-675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.