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On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models

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  • Thomas, Jonathan M

Abstract

Competing-risks models are becomingly increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from the state (i.e. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation). However, as in many limited dependent variable models, the interpretation of the covariate estimates requires care. Despite assertions to the contrary in many published papers, it is shown that the estimated qualitative effect of a covariate on the hazard for risk "j" typically conveys no information on its qualitative effect on either the likelihood of, or unexpected time until, exit via "j." This is because such magnitudes depend on the qualitative and quantitative effects of the covariate on other risks which cannot be ignored. The point is demonstrated by using UK data on the unemployment to re-employment transitions of a sample of male job losers. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

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  • Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 27-39, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:48:y:1996:i:1:p:27-39
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    1. Deneckere, R., 1983. "Duopoly supergames with product differentiation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 37-42.
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    8. Rees, Ray, 1985. "Cheating in a Duopoly Supergame," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 387-400, June.
    9. Donsimoni, Marie-Paule, 1985. "Stable heterogeneous cartels," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 451-467, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cihan Bilginsoy, 2005. "Delivering Skills: Apprenticeship Program Sponsorship and Transition from Training," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    3. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit. Evidence from the LAN switch Industry," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A. & Winterhager, Henrik, 2006. "Regionenmatching im Rahmen der Evaluation der Experimentierungsklausel des § 6c SGB II: Methodische Vorgehensweise und Ergebnisse," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-061, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    5. Bijwaard, Govert, 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 4530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Govert E. Bijwaard & Mikko Myrskylä & Per Tynelius & Finn Rasmussen, 2017. "Educational gain in cause-specific mortality: accounting for confounders," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6121 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6127 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sara Serra, 2016. "Temporary contracts' transitions: the role of training and institutions," Working Papers w201611, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Dietmar Harhoff & Stefan Wagner, 2009. "The Duration of Patent Examination at the European Patent Office," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1969-1984, December.
    11. Bijwaard, Govert & Myrskylä, Mikko & Tynelius, Per & Rasmussen, Finn, 2016. "Education, Cognitive Ability and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Structural Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 10137, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Blumberg, Boris F. & Pfann, Gerard A., 2015. "Roads Leading to Self-Employment: Comparing Transgenerational Entrepreneurs and Self-Made Start-Ups," IZA Discussion Papers 9155, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina & Sembenelli Alessandro, 2014. "Multinationals, Competition and Productivity Spillovers through Worker Mobility," Working Papers 54, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    14. repec:eee:socmed:v:184:y:2017:i:c:p:49-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2009. "Product Innovation and Survival in a High-Tech Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(4), pages 287-306, June.
    16. Lionel Nesta & Roberto Fontana, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit from LAN Switch Industry," Sciences Po publications 2007-02, Sciences Po.
    17. Dirk Oberschachtsiek, 2012. "The experience of the founder and self-employment duration: a comparative advantage approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Bradley, Steve & Crouchley, Rob & Oskrochi, Reza, 2003. "Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 659-679, December.

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