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On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models

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  • Thomas, Jonathan M

Abstract

Competing-risks models are becomingly increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from the state (i.e. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation). However, as in many limited dependent variable models, the interpretation of the covariate estimates requires care. Despite assertions to the contrary in many published papers, it is shown that the estimated qualitative effect of a covariate on the hazard for risk "j" typically conveys no information on its qualitative effect on either the likelihood of, or unexpected time until, exit via "j." This is because such magnitudes depend on the qualitative and quantitative effects of the covariate on other risks which cannot be ignored. The point is demonstrated by using UK data on the unemployment to re-employment transitions of a sample of male job losers. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

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  • Thomas, Jonathan M, 1996. "On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 27-39, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:48:y:1996:i:1:p:27-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Cihan Bilginsoy, 2005. "Delivering Skills: Apprenticeship Program Sponsorship and Transition from Training," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Bijwaard, Govert, 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 4530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Blumberg, Boris & Pfann, Gerard Antonie, 2015. "Roads Leading to Self-Employment: Comparing Transgenerational Entrepreneurs and Self-Made Start-Ups," CEPR Discussion Papers 10699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    5. Govert E. Bijwaard & Mikko Myrskylä & Per Tynelius & Finn Rasmussen, 2017. "Educational gain in cause-specific mortality: accounting for confounders," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit. Evidence from the LAN switch Industry," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A. & Winterhager, Henrik, 2006. "Regionenmatching im Rahmen der Evaluation der Experimentierungsklausel des § 6c SGB II: Methodische Vorgehensweise und Ergebnisse," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-061, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Katariina Nilsson Hakkala & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2018. "Multinationals, competition and productivity spillovers through worker mobility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 401-426, May.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6121 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2009. "Product Innovation and Survival in a High-Tech Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(4), pages 287-306, June.
    11. repec:eee:socmed:v:184:y:2017:i:c:p:49-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit from LAN Switch Industry," Working Papers hal-00973045, HAL.
    13. Govert E. Bijwaard & Mikko Myrskylä & Per Tynelius & Finn Rasmussen, 2016. "Education, cognitive ability and cause-specific mortality: a structural approach," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6127 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sara Serra, 2016. "Temporary contracts' transitions: the role of training and institutions," Working Papers w201611, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. M. J. Andrews & S. Bradley & D. Stott & R. Upward, 2008. "Successful Employer Search? An Empirical Analysis of Vacancy Duration Using Micro Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(299), pages 455-480, August.
    17. Dirk Oberschachtsiek, 2012. "The experience of the founder and self-employment duration: a comparative advantage approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Tomi Kyyrä, 2009. "Marginal Effects for Competing Risks Models with Piecewise Constant Hazards," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 539-565, August.
    19. Dietmar Harhoff & Stefan Wagner, 2009. "The Duration of Patent Examination at the European Patent Office," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1969-1984, December.
    20. Bradley, Steve & Crouchley, Rob & Oskrochi, Reza, 2003. "Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 659-679, December.

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