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The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

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  • Constant, Amelie
  • Zimmermann, Klaus F

Abstract

While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this Paper provides a modelling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country; but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003. "Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    3. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1122, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    5. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
    6. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-559, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C44; duration analysis; guest workers; markov chain analysis; qualitative choice models; repeat migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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