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An Estimable Dynamic Model of Asset Accumulation and Return Migration

  • Murat G. Kirdar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, METU)

This paper analyzes return migration and asset accumulation in a stochastic dynamic model using a longitudinal dataset on legal immigrants in Germany. Our model gives a number of implications about the level, timing and selection of return migration along with the savings proÞles of immigrants. In addition, we examine how the return and savings behavior of immigrants vary according to their country of origin and demographic characteristics. The model is used to determine the impact of a number of counterfactual policy experiments on the composition of immigrants, such as changes in the unemployment insurance program and the payment of bonuses conditional on their employment status and duration of residence to encourage immigrants to return home. In addition, we assess the impact of counterfactuals in the macroeconomic environment, like changes in wages in Germany and in purchasing power parity between Germany and the source countries.

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File URL: http://www.erc.metu.edu.tr/menu/series04/0416.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Paper provided by ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University in its series ERC Working Papers with number 0416.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision: Dec 2004
Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0416
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  1. Sauer, Robert & Keane, Michael P., 2007. "A computationally practical simulation estimation algorithm for dynamic panel data models with unobserved endogenous state variables," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0705, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  2. Kumcu, M. Ercan, 1989. "The savings behavior of migrant workers : Turkish workers in W. Germany," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 273-286, April.
  3. Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1990. "Migrants' Savings, the Probability of Return Migration and Migrants' Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 463-67, May.
  4. Hill, John K., 1987. "Immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 221-234, February.
  5. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  6. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 2001. "The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1051-1103, November.
  8. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February.
  9. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
  10. Dustmann, Christian, 1997. "Return migration, uncertainty and precautionary savings," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 295-316, April.
  11. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
  12. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
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