The duration of trade revisited
The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this article is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox model, and to propose alternative discrete-time models which are more suitable for estimation. In brief, the Cox model has three major drawbacks when applied to large trade data sets. First, it faces problems in the presence of many tied duration times, leading to biased coefficient estimates and standard errors. Second, it is difficult to properly control for unobserved heterogeneity, which can lead to parameter bias and bias in the estimated survivor function. Third, the Cox model imposes the restrictive and empirically questionable assumption of proportional hazards. In contrast, with discrete-time models there is no problem handling ties; unobserved heterogeneity can be controlled for without difficulty; and the restrictive proportional hazards assumption can easily be bypassed. By replicating an influential study by Besedeš and Prusa (J Int Econ 70:339–358, 2006b ), but employing discrete-time models as well as the original Cox model, we find empirical support for each of these arguments against the Cox model. Moreover, when comparing estimation results obtained from a Cox model and our preferred discrete-time specification, we find significant differences in both the predicted survivor functions and the estimated effects of explanatory variables on the hazard. In other words, the choice between models affects the economic conclusions that can be drawn. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/journal/181/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010.
"The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
- Concetta Rondinelli & Cheti Nicoletti, 2009. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: a Monte Carlo study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 705, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- Meyer, Bruce D, 1990.
"Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sueyoshi, Glenn T, 1995. "A Class of Binary Response Models for Grouped Duration Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 411-431, Oct.-Dec..
- Lukas Meier & Sara van de Geer & Peter Bühlmann, 2008. "The group lasso for logistic regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 53-71.
- Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, "undated". "What Makes a Successful Exporter?," Discussion Papers 08/01, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Görg, Holger & Kneller, Richard Anthony & Muraközy, Balázs, 2008. "What makes a successful export?," Kiel Working Papers 1399, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2008. "What Makes a Successful Export?," CeFiG Working Papers 2, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 01 Feb 2008.
- Görg, Holger & Kneller, Richard & Muraközy, Balázs, 2007. "What Makes a Successful Export?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, December.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
- Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
- Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
- Göran Kauermann & Gerhard Tutz & Josef Brüderl, 2005. "The survival of newly founded firms: a case-study into varying-coefficient models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(1), pages 145-158.
- Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
- Tibor Besedes & Thomas J. Prusa, 2007. "The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth," NBER Working Papers 13628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dolton, Peter J & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 1995. "Leaving Teaching in the UK: A Duration Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 431-444, March.
- Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2010. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(3), pages 474-499, December.
- Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4951, The World Bank.
- Stephen W. Salant, 1977. "Search Theory and Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-57.
- Stephen W. Salant, 1974. "Search theory and duration data: a theory of sorts," Special Studies Papers 42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Van Den Berg, 2007. "The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(1), pages 87-99.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2006. "The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-059/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2007. "The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ana Cristina Molina & Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
- Ondrich, Jan & Rhody, Stephen E., 1999. "Multiple spells in the Prentice-Gloeckler-Meyer likelihood with unobserved heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 139-144, May.
- Hess, Wolfgang, 2009. "A Flexible Hazard Rate Model for Grouped Duration Data," Working Papers 2009:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Richard Newfarmer & William Shaw & Peter Walkenhorst, 2009. "Breaking Into New Markets," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2616.
- Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053.
- Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
- McCall, Brian P, 1994. "Testing the Proportional Hazards Assumption in the Presence of Unmeasured Heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 321-334, July-Sept.
- Thomas A. Mroz & Yaraslau V. Zayats, 2008. "Arbitrarily Normalized Coefficients, Information Sets, and False Reports of "Biases" in Binary Outcome Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 406-413, August.
- Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
- James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:1083-1107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.