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The determinants of trade survival

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore the patterns of trade duration across regions and to identify its determinants. Using an extended Cox model, we evaluate the effects of country and product characteristics, as well as of trade cost variables on the duration of trade relationships from 96 countries from 1995 to 2004. Our results suggest first that the duration of trade relationships increases with the region level of development: trade relationships from richer economies face lower hazard rates i.e. longer duration. Second, the type of product matters for export survival, trade relationships involving differentiated products show a hazard rate that is 11% to 13% lower than trade relationships involving homogeneous goods. Third, high export costs increase the probability of export failure in all regions but the effect diminishes with time, thus suggesting that export experience matters. Finally, the size of exports also matters: the larger the transaction, the higher the probability of survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Cristina Molina & Marco Fugazza, 2009. "The determinants of trade survival," IHEID Working Papers 05-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jun 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp05-2009
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    File URL: http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP05-2009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 4, pages 115-148 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Brenton, Paul & Newfarmer, Richard, 2007. "Watching more than the Discovery channel : export cycles and diversification in development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4302, The World Bank.
    3. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    4. Wood, Adrian & Mayer, Jorg, 2001. "Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 369-394, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Fugazza & Alain McLaren, 2014. "Market Access, Export Performance and Survival: Evidence from Peruvian Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 599-624, August.
    2. Céline CARRERE & Vanessa STRAUSS-KAHN, 2012. "Exports Dynamics: Raising Developing Countries Exports Survival through Experience," Working Papers P35-A, FERDI.
    3. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    4. Alessandro Nicita & Miho Shirotori & Bolormaa Tumurchudur Klok, 2013. "Survival Analysis Of The Exports Of Least Developed Countries: The Role Of Comparative Advantage," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 54, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. Hess , Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2011. "Exploring the Long-Term Evolution of Trade Survival," Working Paper Series 880, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    6. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
    7. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited: Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Paper Series 829, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    9. Joakim Gullstrand & Maria Persson, 2015. "How to combine high sunk costs of exporting and low export survival," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 23-51, February.
    10. Beverelli, Cosimo & Kukenova, Madina & Rocha, Nadia, 2011. "Are you experienced? Survival and recovery of trade relations after banking crises," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Sergey Kadochnikov & Anna Fedyunina, 2015. "Export Performance and Survival in Russia: Why some Regions grow fast and others don't," FIW Working Paper series 133, FIW.
    12. Arjan Lejour, 2015. "The Duration of Dutch Export Relations: Decomposing Firm, Country and Product Characteristics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 155-176, June.
    13. Dahai Fu & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Export survival pattern and its determinants: an empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 161-177, May.
    14. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi
      [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]
      ," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Marco Fugazza & Ana Cristina Molina, 2011. "On The Determinants Of Exports Survival," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration; Trade; Fixed Costs;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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