Regional Unemployment in Germany: a spatial panel data analysis
This empirical paper wants to analyze determinants for regional differences in German unemployment rates using a spatial panel model. The analysis of regional differences is of particular interest in the German case due to its specific history. Twenty-two years after German reunification, there are still structural differences between both parts affecting economic activity. We identify the driving factors in the whole of Germany as well as in East and West Germany separately. To our best knowledge, this study is the first contribution investigating regional unemployment in the reunified Germany. We provide evidence of spatial dependence in regional unemployment data. Taking into account theoretical contributions to this literature, we exploit 24 possible explanatory variables on 412 German districts for the period from 1999 until 2007. To select the relevant variables for our model, we apply a two-step model selection procedure. Firstly, we divide our variables into three groups according to theoretical importance. Secondly, we regress regional unemployment rates on different combinations of variables where the essential variables are always contained. As unemployment data also exhibit temporal dependence, we specify both a static and a dynamic spatial panel model. The spatial econometric literature provides various types of spatial models. To decide which type of spatial model is appropriate in our context, we apply the specification test by Debarsy and Ertur (2010, Reg. Sci. Urban Econ.). The static model specification is estimated using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator proposed in Lee and Yu (2010, J. Econometrics) and the dynamic model is estimated using the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator proposed by Lee and Yu (2010, Econometric Theory). To incorporate the spatial information into the model, we construct different spatial weights matrices. On the one hand, we use the binary contiguity matrix and, on the other, we apply a distance-based spatial weights matrix as well as the matrix proposed in Molho (1995, J. Reg. Sci.). We extend the existing literature by the following two aspects: Firstly, we apply both a static and a dynamic spatial panel model. Hence, we exploit the panel dimension of our data and, in addition to that, we account for both spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Our results show that the spatial dynamic panel model fits the data in the best way. Secondly, we provide evidence for regional unemployment in Germany being of disequilibrium nature. This finding justifies political interventions on regional labor markets. JEL: C23, R12, R23 Keywords: regional unemployment, spatial dependence, spatial panel models, Germany
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aragon, Y. & Haughton, D. & Haughton, J. & Leconte, E. & Malin, E. & Ruiz-Gazen, A. & Thomas-Agnan. C., 1999.
"Explaining the Pattern of Regional Unemployment: the Case of the Midi-Pyrenees Region,"
99.519, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Éric Malin, 2003. "Explaining the pattern of regional unemployment : the case of the Midi-Pyrénées region," Post-Print halshs-00069665, HAL.
- Debarsy, Nicolas & Ertur, Cem, 2010. "Testing for spatial autocorrelation in a fixed effects panel data model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 453-470, November.
- Nicolas Debarsy & Cem Ertur, 2009. "Testing for Spatial Autocorrelation in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model," Post-Print halshs-00414133, HAL.
- Nicolas DEBARSY (CERPE De Namur) & Cem ERTUR, 2009. "Testing for Spatial Autocorrelation in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1546, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
- J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 709-748, December.
- Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2008. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 118-134, September.
- Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
- Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994. "Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 1997. "The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-606.
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Ron Martin, 1997. "Regional Unemployment Disparities and their Dynamics," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 237-252.
- Christian Bayer & Falko Juessen, 2004. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," Urban/Regional 0411007, EconWPA.
- Bayer, Christian & Juessen, Falko, 2006. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," Technical Reports 2006,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Falko Juessen & Christian Bayer, 2005. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," ERSA conference papers ersa05p410, European Regional Science Association.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Bentolila, Samuel, 1998. "Regional unemployment persistence (Spain, 1976-1994)," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-51, March.
- T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
- Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., "undated". "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP 412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Liu, Long, 2008. "Testing for random effects and spatial lag dependence in panel data models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(18), pages 3304-3306, December.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Long Liu, 2008. "Testing for Random Effects and Spatial Lag Dependence in Panel Data Models," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 102, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regional Convergence in Germany: a Geographically Weighted Regression Approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-64.
- Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Turck, 2006. "Regional Convergence in Germany. A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa06p461, European Regional Science Association.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Stephen T. Marston, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa12p53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.