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Using spatial econometric models for regional unemployment forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Semerikova, Elena

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Demidova, Olga

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We consider forecasting unemployment in Russian and German region with the help of econometric panel data models. Using regional data from 2005 till 2012 we show that spatial panel data models perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than other models (on average and at least for some distinct regions) such as non-spatial panel data models, pooled OLS, models without exploratory variables and naive forecasts (average value for one or several previous periods).

Suggested Citation

  • Semerikova, Elena & Demidova, Olga, 2016. "Using spatial econometric models for regional unemployment forecasting," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 43, pages 29-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0296
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 709-748, December.
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    5. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial panel data models; prediction; regional unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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