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Tourism-led growth hypothesis


  • Aistov, Andrey

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation)

  • Nikolaeva, Tatiana

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation)


The paper contributes to empirical evidence of tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis. The research is based on a balanced panel data for 116 countries from the World Bank, 1995–2017. International tourism receipts, its share in GDP, and annual number of international tourist arrivals per capita are used as indicators of countries’ specialization on tourism. Granger (non) causality test as long as autoregressive distributed lags models with heterogeneous parameters and control for cross-sectional dependence are in line with the TLG-hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Aistov, Andrey & Nikolaeva, Tatiana, 2019. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 56, pages 5-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0378

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    More about this item


    tourism; GDP; Granger causality; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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