A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development
The significant impact of international tourism in stimulating economic growth is especially important from a policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between international tourism and economic growth would seem to be an interesting empirical issue. In particular, if there is a causal link between international tourism demand and economic growth, then appropriate policy implications may be developed. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tourism specialization is important for economic development in East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1991-2008. The impact of the degree of tourism specialization, which is incorporated as a threshold variable, on economic growth is examined for a wide range of countries at different stages of economic development. The empirical results from threshold estimation identify two endogenous cut-off points, namely 14.97% and 17.50%. This indicates that the entire sample should be divided into three regimes. The results from panel threshold regression show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and tourism in two regimes, the regime with the degree of tourism specialization lower than 14.97% (regime 1) and the regime with the degree of tourism specialization between 14.97% and 17.50% (regime 2). However, the magnitudes of the impact of tourism on economic growth in those two regimes are not the same, with the higher impact being found in regime 2. An insignificant relationship between economic growth and tourism is found in regime 3, in which the degree of tourism specialization is greater than 17.50%. The empirical results suggest that tourism growth does not always lead to economic growth.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tiago Neves Sequeira & Carla Campos, 2005. "International Tourism and Economic Growth: a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2005.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002.
"Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- R. Brau & A. Lanza & F. Pigliaru, 2006.
"How fast are small tourist countries growing? The 1980-2003 evidence,"
Working Paper CRENoS
200614, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Francesco Pigliaru & Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourist Countries Growing? The 1980-2003 Evidence," Working Papers 2007.1, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Badassa Tadasse, 2007. "The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa," Working Papers 200716, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
- Bai, Jushan, 1997.
"Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELTHRESH: RATS procedure to analyze up to two threshold breaks in a fixed effects panel model," Statistical Software Components RTS00152, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's example of threshold break in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00088, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.