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Output Volatility and Tourism Specialization in Small Island Developing States


  • Mahalia Jackman

    (Antilles Economics, St George, Barbados)


This paper investigates the relationship between tourism specialization and output volatility in a sample of 34 small island developing states (SIDS). The initial results suggest that there is a positive relationship between tourism and output volatility. Then, to test whether or not the impact of tourism is uniform across SIDS, the author divides the sample of SIDS by their regional groupings. The positive relationship between tourism specialization and volatility seems to be isolated to states in the Asia and Pacific region; that is, the region with the lowest level of tourism specialization on average. However, an evaluation of the fluctuations in tourism receipts indicates that the average volatility of tourism is highest in this region. This implies that the impact of tourism on economic volatility depends greatly on the level of volatility in tourism and, to a lesser extent, on the level of specialization.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahalia Jackman, 2014. "Output Volatility and Tourism Specialization in Small Island Developing States," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 527-544, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:20:y:2014:i:3:p:527-544
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0289

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2012. "IV Estimation of a Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 5-41, February.
    2. Chang, C-L. & Khamkaew, T. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "A Panel Threshold Model of Tourism Specialization and Economic Development," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-40, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    4. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    5. Brau, Rinaldo & Lanza, Alessandro & Pigliaru, Francesco, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980–2003," MPRA Paper 82776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jackman M.M., 2012. "Revisiting The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis For Barbados: A Disaggregated Market Approach," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    7. Harald Badinger, 2012. "Cyclical expenditure policy, output volatility and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(7), pages 835-851, March.
    8. Roland Craigwell & Mahalia Jackman & Winston Moore, 2010. "Economic volatility and remittances," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-42, April.
    9. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2011. "How Do Tourists React To Political Violence? An Empirical Analysis Of Tourism In Egypt," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 217-243.
    10. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jackman, Mahalia & Lorde, Troy & Naitram, Simon & Greenaway, Tori, 2020. "Distance matters: the impact of physical and relative distance on pleasure tourists' length of stay in Barbados," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).


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