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Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Thomas Panagiotou

    (European University Institute, Italy)

  • Maurizio Mussoni

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

The Tourism-Led-Growth hypothesis is investigated in this study. We employ a panel of 187 countries for a period that spans from 1995 to 2009. Panel unit root tests confirm that both GDP and tourism receipts are non-stationary. Alternative panel cointegration tests are employed and the results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between tourism receipts and GDP. Different specifications that take into account the accounting effect, confirm the latter. Finally, the long-run elasticities of tourism receipts on GDP are found to take values close to 0.2.

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Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 74_12.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:74_12
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  1. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
  2. JG. Brida & M. Pulina, 2010. "A literature review on the tourism-led-growth hypothesis," Working Paper CRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  3. R. Brau & A. Lanza & F. Pigliaru, 2003. "How fast are tourism countries growing? The cross country evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 200309, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  4. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
  5. Francesco Pigliaru & Rinaldo Brau & Alessandro Lanza, 2007. "How Fast are Small Tourist Countries Growing? The 1980-2003 Evidence," Working Papers 2007.1, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
  7. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
  8. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S. & Risso, Wiston Adrián & Devesa, María Jesús Such & Aguirre, Sandra Zapata, 2008. "The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 25286, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2009.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. F. Cerina, 2006. "Tourism specialization and environmental sustainability in a dynamic economy," Working Paper CRENoS 200602, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  11. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  12. Copeland, Brian R, 1991. "Tourism, Welfare and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(232), pages 515-29, November.
  13. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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