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Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression

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  • Selva Demiralp
  • Kevin D. Hoover

Abstract

We provide an accessible introduction to graph‐theoretic methods for causal analysis. Building on the work of Swanson and Granger (Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 92, pp. 357–367, 1997), and generalizing to a larger class of models, we show how to apply graph‐theoretic methods to selecting the causal order for a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We evaluate the PC (causal search) algorithm in a Monte Carlo study. The PC algorithm uses tests of conditional independence to select among the possible causal orders – or at least to reduce the admissible causal orders to a narrow equivalence class. Our findings suggest that graph‐theoretic methods may prove to be a useful tool in the analysis of SVARs.

Suggested Citation

  • Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:s1:p:745-767
    DOI: 10.1046/j.0305-9049.2003.00087.x
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    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    2. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    3. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882.
    4. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1985. "Understanding monetary regimes," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-8, January.
    5. David A. Bessler & Seongpyo Lee, 2002. "Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 427-446.
    6. Kevin D. Hoover & Steven M. Sheffrin (ed.), 1995. "Monetarism And The Methodology Of Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 232.
    7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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