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Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Bessler

    () (Center for Economic Information KDI, P.O.Box 113, Chongyang, Seoul, Korea, 130-012)

  • Seongpyo Lee

    () (Center for Economic Information KDI, P.O.Box 113, Chongyang, Seoul, Korea, 130-012)

Abstract

This paper reconsiders empirical evidence on relationships among money, income, nominal prices, and wheat prices. Error correction and directed acyclic graphs are used to study both lagged and contemporaneous relations in late 19th and early 20th century U.S. data. We summarize evidence supporting the view that money was a causal actor in price movement in this period. In the long run (at a five year horizon), over twenty percent of the movement in price is explained by earlier movements in money supply; whereas, wheat price accounts for less than ten percent of this movement. There is also evidence that money supply was not exogenous, as it was determined, in contemporaneous time, by movements in the general price level and income. About forty percent of the variation in money is explained by current or lagged prices and income. There remains considerable uncertainty with respect to role of wheat prices in this period. Innovations in wheat price explain over twenty five percent of the uncertainty in real income at the five year forecast horizon - suggesting wheat price as either causal or proxying for more fundamental causal forces in the U.S. economy over our period of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Bessler & Seongpyo Lee, 2002. "Money and prices: U.S. Data 1869-1914 (A study with directed graphs)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 427-446.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:3:p:427-446
    Note: received: December 1999/Final version received: February 2001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
    2. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "The Janus-Faced Nature of Debt: Results from a Data-Driven Cointegrated SVAR Approach," LEM Papers Series 2017/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Moonsoo Park & Yanhong H. Jin & David A. Bessler, 2008. "The impacts of animal disease crises on the Korean meat market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 183-195, September.
    4. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2016. "Bayesian Graphical Models for STructural Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 357-386, March.
    5. Mendonça, Mário Jorge & Loureiro, Paulo R.A. & Sachsida, Adolfo, 2012. "The dynamics of land-use in Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-36.
    6. Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge, 2013. "O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    7. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2006. "Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21439, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "The Janus-Faced Nature of Debt: Results from a Data-Driven Cointegrated SVAR Approach," LEM Papers Series 2017/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    10. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
    11. Peter G. Fennell & David O'Sullivan & Antoine Godin & Stephen Kinsella, 2014. "Visualising stock flow consistent models as directed acyclic graphs," Papers 1409.4541, arXiv.org.
    12. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.
    13. Perez, Stephen J. & Siegler, Mark V., 2006. "Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 720-736, December.
    14. Marco Capasso & Alessio Moneta, 2016. "Macroeconomic responses to an independent monetary policy shock: a (more) agnostic identification procedure," LEM Papers Series 2016/36, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    16. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
    17. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Selva Demiralp & Kevin Hoover & Stephen Perez, 2014. "Still puzzling: evaluating the price puzzle in an empirically identified structural vector autoregression," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 701-731, March.
    19. Oxley, Les & Reale, Marco & Wilson, Granville Tunnicliffe, 2009. "Constructing structural VAR models with conditional independence graphs," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2910-2916.
    20. Bessler, David A. & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    22. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2004. "Analysis Of Dynamic Interrelationships Between Transportation Rates And Grain Prices," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20339, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    23. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2009. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 357-374, June.
    24. repec:sbe:breart:v:31:y:2011:i:1:a:3410 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2012. "Bayesian Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Processes," Working Papers 2012:36, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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