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The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia

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Listed:
  • Brida, Juan Gabriel
  • Pereyra, Juan S.
  • Risso, Wiston Adrián
  • Devesa, María Jesús Such
  • Aguirre, Sandra Zapata

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Colombia. First, we perform an ex-post analysis and quantify the contribution of the tourism to economic growth from the early 90’s until 2006 by disaggregating growth of real GDP per capita into economic growth generated by tourism and by other industries. Second, we analyze if international tourism is a strategic factor for long-run economic growth for Colombia. This believes that tourism can cause long-run economic growth it is known in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. The hypothesis is tested empirically by using the cointegration test by Johansen and the Granger Causality test. We find empirical evidence for one cointegrated vector among real GDP per capita, Colombian tourism expenditures and real exchange rates, where the latter two variables are weakly exogenous to the model. The Granger causality test suggests that causality in this model goes from tourism expenditures to real GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S. & Risso, Wiston Adrián & Devesa, María Jesús Such & Aguirre, Sandra Zapata, 2008. "The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 25286, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25286
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    2. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Fiorella Pizzolon, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 879-894.
    3. Mohammad Jaforullah, 2015. "International tourism and economic growth in New Zealand," Working Papers 1502, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2015.
    4. Muhammad Tariq Majeed & Maria Mazhar, 2021. "Managing economic growth through tourism: Does volatility of tourism matter?," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(1), pages 49-69, March.
    5. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    6. Younesse El Menyari, 2017. "International tourism and long-term economic growth: Analysis by heterogeneous dynamic panel data," Tourism Research Institute, Journal of Tourism Research, vol. 18(1), pages 134-147, November.
    7. Azam Muhammad & Mahdiat Mahdiat & Hafeez Muhammad Haroon & Bakhtyar Baher, 2022. "Investigating the Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Polish Journal of Sport and Tourism, Sciendo, vol. 29(1), pages 39-47, March.
    8. Stanislav H. Ivanov & Craig Webster, 2013. "Tourism's Contribution to Economic Growth: A Global Analysis for the First Decade of the Millennium," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(3), pages 477-508, June.
    9. Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Khalid Zaman & Abdullah Mohammed Aldakhil & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro, 2017. "War economy and pleasure: assessing the effects of military expenditure on tourism growth," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1733-1754, July.
    10. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
    11. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    12. Juan Gabriel Brida & Lionello F. Punzo & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2011. "Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth – the Case of Brazil," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(6), pages 1375-1386, December.
    13. Nguyen Ho Minh Trang & Nguyen Huu Chau Duc & Nguyen Tien Dung, 2014. "Research Note: Empirical Assessment of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis — The Case of Vietnam," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 885-892, August.
    14. Jorge Ridderstaat & Robertico Croes & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Modelling Tourism Development and Long-run Economic Growth in Aruba," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-145/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Stanislav Ivanov & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2017. "The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 168-186, February.
    16. Kristen Corrie & Natalie Stoeckl & Taha Chaiechi, 2013. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Investigation of Causal Links," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1317-1344, December.
    17. Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Productivity growth and income in the tourism sector: Role of tourism demand and human capital investment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 426-433.
    18. Camelia Surugiu & Marius Razvan Surugiu, 2013. "Is the Tourism Sector Supportive of Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence on Romanian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 115-132, February.
    19. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Nikeel N. Kumar, 2018. "Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker, exchange rate and structural breaks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 49-68, February.
    20. Theodore Panagiotidis & Thomas Panagiotou & Maurizio Mussoni, 2012. "Tourism Led Growth: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests," Working Paper series 74_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    21. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism impacts; economic growth; GDP; cointegration test; causality test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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