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The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

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  • Ertugrul, Hasan Murat
  • Mangir, Fatih

Abstract

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Ertugrul, Hasan Murat & Mangir, Fatih, 2012. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 96419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96419
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Seker, Fahri & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat & Cetin, Murat, 2015. "The impact of foreign direct investment on environmental quality: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 347-356.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    3. Osinubi, Tolulope Temilola & Osinubi , Olufemi Bankole, 2020. "Inclusive Growth in Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    4. Eda BALIKÇIOĞLU & Kutay OKTAY, 2015. "Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Kamu Politikaları Doğrultusunda Değerlendirilmesi," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(25).
    5. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "The Validity of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Thailand," MPRA Paper 72716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eric Olabode Olabisi, 2018. "Revisiting the Tourism-Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Economic Community of West African States," Izvestiya, Varna University of Economics, issue 1, pages 21-30.
    7. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer, 2020. "Dynamic spillover effects among tourism, economic growth and macro-finance risk factors," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 173-194, September.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    9. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    10. Muthana Mohammad Omoush, 2018. "Time Series Analysis among Tourism, Financial Development, FDI and Economic Growth in Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 150-150, December.
    11. Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hemachandra Padhan, 0. "Does globalization exacerbate income inequality in two largest emerging economies? The role of FDI and remittances inflows," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 0, pages 1-38.
    12. Emre Atilgan & Dilek Kilic & Hasan Murat Ertugrul, 2017. "The dynamic relationship between health expenditure and economic growth: is the health-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(5), pages 567-574, June.
    13. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; granger causality; ARDL model; Kalman filter method;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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