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The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed
  • El Menyari, Younesse

Abstract

This study proposes to examine the impact of tourism activity on the economic growth of Morocco and Tunisia. We contribute here to the empirical literature on the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, by adopting the error correction model framework, the cointegration and Granger Causality tests between real tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Morocco and Tunisia, for the annual period 1980-2010; two main results emerge from this analysis. First, contrary to the predictions of the TLG hypothesis, the Granger test results show that this hypothesis is only valid for short-term in the two countries of Maghreb. Second, the results show that in the long term, there is a strong unidirectional causality from economic growth to international tourism receipts.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2013. "The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia," MPRA Paper 44102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44102
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    5. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    6. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
      [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]
      ," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
    7. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-292, May.
    8. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Carla Campos, 2005. "International Tourism and Economic Growth: a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2005.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Chen, Lein Lein & Devereux, John, 1999. "Tourism and Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(2), pages 209-227, July.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    2. repec:eee:touman:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:158-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Buthaina M. A. Muhtaseb & Hussam-Eldin Daoud, 2017. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Jordan: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Frameworks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 214-223.
    4. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    5. Benzarour, Choukri & satour, rachid, 2016. "السياحة والنمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر : الأدلة من التكامل المشترك و تحليل السببية
      [Tourism and economic growth in Algeria: Evidence of Cointegration and causal analysis]
      ," MPRA Paper 78731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TLG hypothesis; tourism receipts; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality; Morocco and Tunisia;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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