IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v13y2025i4p97-d1625470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Quantile ARDL Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Huthaifa Alqaralleh

    (Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan)

  • Ahmad Alsarayreh

    (Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan)

  • Ahmad Alsaraireh

    (Banking and Finance Departments, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan)

Abstract

This study analyses the intricate connection between tourism and economic growth, emphasising significant gaps in existing literature. The study utilises a comprehensive framework encompassing tourism-led economic growth (TLEG) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG), highlighting the bidirectional dynamics at play. This study utilises a panel quantile ARDL regression model to analyse regional disparities and varying levels of economic and tourism development. Results demonstrate that European nations with robust tourism sectors exhibit more significant recoveries, whereas Asia–Pacific countries face heightened pressure to leverage tourism for economic stabilisation. This study demonstrates the heightened sensitivity of GDP to tourism in economic downturns, emphasising the sector’s critical role in sustaining growth during difficult periods. Long-term implications favour a strategic focus on structural factors over cyclical ones, promoting innovation, infrastructure development, and investment in human capital. This study recommends economic policies that utilise tourism’s strengths, enhance resilience, and promote diversification to achieve sustainable prosperity during economic challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Ahmad Alsarayreh & Ahmad Alsaraireh, 2025. "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Quantile ARDL Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:4:p:97-:d:1625470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/4/97/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/4/97/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. Kasimati Evangelia, 2016. "Does tourism contribute significantly to the Greek economy? A multiplier analysis," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 55-62, May.
    3. Abdulkarim K. Alhowaish, 2016. "Is Tourism Development a Sustainable Economic Growth Strategy in the Long Run? Evidence from GCC Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-10, June.
    4. Nguyen Ho Minh Trang & Nguyen Huu Chau Duc & Nguyen Tien Dung, 2014. "Research Note: Empirical Assessment of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis — The Case of Vietnam," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 885-892, August.
    5. Alejandro Alcalá-Ordóñez & Juan Gabriel Brida & Pablo Juan Cárdenas-García, 2024. "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been confirmed? Evidence from an updated literature review," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(22), pages 3571-3607, November.
    6. James E. Payne & Andrea Mervar, 2010. "Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 1089-1094, December.
    7. Kong, Qunxi & Peng, Dan & Ni, Yehui & Jiang, Xinyue & Wang, Ziqi, 2021. "Trade openness and economic growth quality of China: Empirical analysis using ARDL model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2016. "Estimation of heterogeneous panels with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 176-195.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    11. Alejandro Ramirez & Gustav Ranis, 1997. "Economic Growth and Human Development," Working Papers 787, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    12. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    13. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    14. Elvira da Costa Ribeiro & Bing Wang, 2020. "Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: Has the Tourism industry an impact on The Economic Growth of Sao Tome and Principe?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 180-185.
    15. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    16. Suri, Tavneet & Boozer, Michael A. & Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances, 2011. "Paths to Success: The Relationship Between Human Development and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 506-522, April.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    18. Wamboye, Evelyn F. & Nyaronga, Peter John & Sergi, Bruno S., 2020. "What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    19. Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances & Ramirez, Alejandro, 2000. "Economic Growth and Human Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 197-219, February.
    20. Martins, Luís Filipe & Gan, Yi & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-260.
    21. Juan L. Eugenio-Martin & Noelia Martín-Morales & M. Thea Sinclair, 2008. "The Role of Economic Development in Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 673-690, December.
    22. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    23. Li, Hengyun & Chen, Jason Li & Li, Gang & Goh, Carey, 2016. "Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 81-99.
    24. Mahmut Bilen & Veli Yilanci & Hakan Eryüzlü, 2017. "Tourism development and economic growth: a panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 27-32, January.
    25. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli, 2011. "Mass Beach Tourism and Economic Growth: Lessons from Tunisia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 531-547, June.
    26. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2013. "The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia," MPRA Paper 44102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Juan Gabriel Brida & Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2016. "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 394-430, April.
    28. Yang, Li & Zhou, Xiaoxiao & Feng, Xiaowei, 2022. "Renewable energy led Economic Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from novel panel methods for N-11 economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 790-797.
    29. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
    30. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    31. Georges Harb & Charbel Bassil, 2021. "Harnessing cross-region disparities to assess the impact of tourism on regional growth in Europe," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 1491-1504, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.
    2. Andrzej Tucki & Korneliusz Pylak, 2021. "Collective or Individual? What Types of Tourism Reduce Economic Inequality in Peripheral Regions?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Niccolò Comerio & Fausto Pacicco, 2024. "The role of tourism in reducing economic inequalities: the case of Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(3), pages 839-880, October.
    4. Tina T He & Wilson XB Li, 2021. "Revisiting tourism’s additional impact on income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 149-167, February.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    6. Osinubi, Tolulope Temilola & Osinubi , Olufemi Bankole, 2020. "Inclusive Growth in Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    7. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    8. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Nikeel Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 221-254, August.
    9. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2024. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Growth and Development in Developing Regions: Evidence from a Comparative Analysis and a New Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 14700-14748, September.
    10. Muhammad Tariq Majeed & Maria Mazhar, 2021. "Managing economic growth through tourism: Does volatility of tourism matter?," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(1), pages 49-69, March.
    11. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    12. Schubert, Stefan Franz & Brida, Juan Gabriel, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Economic Growth in a Small Tourism Driven Economy," MPRA Paper 16737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mohamed Mabrouki, 2023. "Patent, Education, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in Scandinavian Countries: a Dynamic Panel CS-ARDL Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(3), pages 3028-3043, September.
    14. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090104, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    15. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    16. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
    17. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    18. Maha Kalai & Hamdi Becha & Kamel Helali, 2024. "Effect of artificial intelligence on economic growth in European countries: a symmetric and asymmetric cointegration based on linear and non-linear ARDL approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 13(1), pages 1-37, December.
    19. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    20. Jianping Zha & Zhiyong Li, 2017. "Drivers of tourism growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 941-962, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:4:p:97-:d:1625470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.