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Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests


  • Jalil, Abdul
  • Mahmood, Tahir
  • Idrees, Muhammad


This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth. Furthermore, the estimated growth regression clearly indicates that the international tourism has a significantly positive impact on the economic growth of Pakistan along with other variables like physical capital and international trade. This implies that the improvement in the tourism sector may enhance the economic growth activities in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Jalil, Abdul & Mahmood, Tahir & Idrees, Muhammad, 2013. "Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 185-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:185-191 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:touman:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:158-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    3. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    4. Murthy, Vasudeva N.R. & Okunade, Albert A., 2016. "Determinants of U.S. health expenditure: Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 67-73.
    5. Tomohara, Akinori, 2016. "Japan's tourism-led foreign direct investment inflows: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 435-441.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon & Aviral Kumar, Tiwari & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamic Inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India," MPRA Paper 69848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2016.
    8. Hasnul, Al Gifari & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Role of instability in affecting capital flight magnitude: An ARDL bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 72086, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Tourism; Economic growth; ARDL bounds tests; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development


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