IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/37332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
[Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of the econometric literature]

Author

Listed:
  • Brida, Juan Gabriel
  • Pereyra, Juan Sebastián
  • Such, María Jesús
  • Pulina, Manuela

Abstract

This work contains a critical review of main econometric studies that have addressed the analysis of causality between tourism and long-term economic growth. These studies have employed a variety of methodologies, models such as VAR, VECM, ARDL, ARCH, GARCH, cross section and panel data. In general using a test of cointegration of economic variables as a way to test Granger causality. This work shows that in the cases reviewed there is strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis of tourism's long-term economic growth. However, this does not allow general conclusions on policy and planning implications. Additionally, the study shows that the values of the elasticity of economic growth from tourism are significant different between countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37332/1/MPRA_paper_37332.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
    2. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    3. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Barquet, Andrea & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2009. "Causality between Economic Growth and Tourism Expansion: Empirical Evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige," MPRA Paper 25316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2009.
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    5. Teame Ghirmay & Richard Grabowski & Subhash Sharma, 2001. "Exports, investment, efficiency and economic growth in LDC: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 689-700.
    6. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Butler, Richard & Correia, Antónia, 2010. "The length of stay of golf tourism: A survival analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 13-21.
    7. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    8. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Paulo Macas Nunes, 2008. "Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2431-2441.
    9. Holzner, Mario, 2011. "Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 922-933.
    10. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan S. & Risso, Wiston Adrián & Devesa, María Jesús Such & Aguirre, Sandra Zapata, 2008. "The Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 25286, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2009.
    11. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    12. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
    13. Paul Downward & Les Lumsdon, 2003. "Beyond the Demand for Day-Visits: An Analysis of Visitor Spending," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(1), pages 67-76, March.
    14. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February.
    15. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
    16. Javier Capó Parrilla & Antoni Riera Font & Jaume Rosselló Nadal, 2005. "Dutch Disease in Tourism Economies. Evidence from Spain," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2005/01, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra"), revised Jan 2005.
    17. James E. Payne & Andrea Mervar, 2010. "Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 1089-1094, December.
    18. Gardella, Rodrigo & Aguayo, Eva, 2002. "Impacto economico del turismo en el Mercosur y Chile (1990-2000)," Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1).
    19. Jamal Husein & S. Murat Kara, 2011. "Research Note: Re-Examining the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 917-924, August.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:472-481 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Salih Turan Katircioğlu, 2010. "International Tourism, Higher Education and Economic Growth: The Case of North Cyprus," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1955-1972, December.
    22. Edgar J Sanchez Carrera & W. Adrian Risso & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2008. "Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(21), pages 1-8.
    23. Haiyan Song & Gang Li & Stephen F. Witt & Baogang Fei, 2010. "Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 63-81, March.
    24. Shiok Ye Lim & Mohd Fahmi Ghazali & Chong Mun Ho, 2011. "Export and economic growth in Southeast Asia current Newly Industrialized Countries: Evidence from nonparametric approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2683-2693.
    25. Mahalia Jackman & Troy Lorde, 2010. "On the Relationship between Tourist Flows and Household Expenditure in Barbados: A Dynamic OLS Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 472-481.
    26. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    27. Charalambos Louca, 2006. "Income and Expenditure in the Tourism Industry: Time Series Evidence from Cyprus," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(4), pages 603-617, December.
    28. Po, Wan-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2008. "Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5535-5542.
    29. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    30. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    31. Lorde, Troy & Francis, Brian & Drakes, Lisa, 2009. "Tourism Services Exports and Economic Growth in Barbados," MPRA Paper 95549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Sumei Tang & E.A. Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2007. "The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(1), pages 25-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nisar Ahmad & Angeliki N. Menegaki & Saeed Al‐Muharrami, 2020. "Systematic Literature Review Of Tourism Growth Nexus: An Overview Of The Literature And A Content Analysis Of 100 Most Influential Papers," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1068-1110, December.
    2. Elvira da Costa Ribeiro & Bing Wang, 2020. "Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: Has the Tourism industry an impact on The Economic Growth of Sao Tome and Principe?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 180-185.
    3. Juan Gabriel Brida & Silvia London & Mara Rojas, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Tourism and Economic Growth: the Role of Physical and Human Capital," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1361-1373.
    4. Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.
    5. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2020. "Inversión en infraestructura y demanda turística: una aplicacion del enfoque de control sintético para el caso de Kuélap, Perú," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-491, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    2. Jun Zhang & Li Cheng, 2019. "Threshold Effect of Tourism Development on Economic Growth Following a Disaster Shock: Evidence from the Wenchuan Earthquake, P.R. China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    4. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ivanov, Stanislav & Loganathan, Nanthakumar, 2015. "Nexus between Tourism demand and output per capita with relative importance of trade and financial development: A study of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 67226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2015.
    6. Paravee Maneejuk & Woraphon Yamaka & Wilawan Srichaikul, 2022. "Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries under the Presence of Structural Break: Panel Kink with GME Estimator," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Kristen Corrie & Natalie Stoeckl & Taha Chaiechi, 2013. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Investigation of Causal Links," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1317-1344, December.
    8. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Nikeel Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 221-254, August.
    9. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    10. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    11. Jalil, Abdul & Mahmood, Tahir & Idrees, Muhammad, 2013. "Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 185-191.
    12. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Fiorella Pizzolon, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between tourism and economic growth in MERCOSUR countries: a nonlinear approach based on asymmetric time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 879-894.
    13. José Alberto Fuinhas & Matheus Belucio & Daniela Castilho & Joana Mateus & Rafaela Caetano, 2020. "Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus in Latin America and Caribbean Countries: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Stanislav Ivanov & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2017. "The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 168-186, February.
    15. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
    17. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    18. Jackman M.M., 2012. "Revisiting The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis For Barbados: A Disaggregated Market Approach," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    19. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Muhammad Irfan & Munir Ahmad & Ousmane Traore, 2020. "Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    20. Yong Su & Jacob Cherian & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Alina Badulescu & Phung Anh Thu & Daniel Badulescu & Sarminah Samad, 2021. "Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; economic growth; Granger’s causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.