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Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting

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  • Li, Gang
  • Song, Haiyan
  • Witt, Stephen F.

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  • Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:1:p:57-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ray, Ranjan, 1985. "Specification and time series estimation of dynamic Gorman Polar Form demand systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 357-374.
    2. Maria De Mello & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 2002. "A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 509-521.
    3. Giannis Karagiannis & Kostas Velentzas, 1997. "Explaining Food Consumption Patterns In Greece," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-3), pages 83-92.
    4. Karagiannis, Giannis & Katranidis, Stelios D. & Velentzas, K., 2000. "An error correction almost ideal demand system for meat in Greece," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 22(1), January.
    5. Balcombe, Kelvin George & Davis, J.R., 1996. "An application of cointegration theory in the estimation of the Almost Ideal Demand system for food consumption in Bulgaria," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), September.
    6. Karagiannis, G. & Mergos, G. J., 2002. "Estimating theoretically consistent demand systems using cointegration techniques with application to Greek food data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 137-143, January.
    7. Alston, Julian M & Foster, Kenneth A & Green, Richard D, 1994. "Estimating Elasticities with the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System: Some Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 351-356, May.
    8. Marcus Chambers & K. Ben Nowman, 1997. "Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 935-943.
    9. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    10. David A. Belsley, 1973. "On the Determination of Systematic Parameter Variation in the Linear Regression Model," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 487-494 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. David A. Belsley & Edwin Kuti, 1973. "Time-Varying Parameter Structures: An Overview," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 375-379 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Attfield, C. L. F., 1997. "Estimating a cointegrating demand system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 61-73, January.
    13. Chambers, Marcus J., 1990. "Forecasting with demand systems : A comparative study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 363-376, June.
    14. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    15. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, January.
    16. Tucci, Marco P., 1995. "Time-varying parameters: a critical introduction," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 237-260, June.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    18. Gordon Anderson & Richard Blundell, 1983. "Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System: An Application to Consumers' Expenditure in Canada," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 397-410.
    19. Doran, Howard E. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1997. "Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 83-95, July.
    20. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
    21. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G., 1996. "Modelling economies subject to structural change: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-559, October.
    22. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    23. Duffy, Martyn, 2003. "Advertising and food, drink and tobacco consumption in the United Kingdom: a dynamic demand system," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 51-70, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:4:p:759-769 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
    4. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
    5. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
      [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th
      ," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    6. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:181-193 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Asai, Manabu & Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using block structure multivariate stochastic volatility models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    8. Claveria, Oscar & Torra, Salvador, 2014. "Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 220-228.
    9. repec:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:247-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:1:p:172-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fildes, Robert & Wei, Yingqi & Ismail, Suzilah, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 902-922.
    12. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    13. Song, Haiyan & Gao, Bastian Z. & Lin, Vera S., 2013. "Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-310.
    14. Mauricio Calani & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "A Systemic Approach to Money Demand Modeling," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 512, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. repec:eee:touman:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:213-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wani, M.H. & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Bazaz, Naseer H. & Manzoor, M., 2015. "Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(2).
    17. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:159-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ya-Ling Huang & Chin-Tsai Lin, 2011. "Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 513-524, April.
    19. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:51-:d:123300 is not listed on IDEAS

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