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A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries


  • Maria De Mello
  • Alan Pack
  • M. Thea Sinclair


This paper uses a system of equations model to examine tourism demand during periods of destination country transition and integration into the wider international community. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is applied to the UK demand for tourism in the neighbouring destinations, France, Spain and Portugal. Spain and Portugal are interesting cases as, during the period under consideration, they experienced a process of transition from economies with characteristics typical of developing countries, only entering the World Bank's industrialized countries classification in the 1980s. The paper examines the evolution of tourism demand during these countries' transition from 'developing' to 'developed' status. Consideration of France as a neighbouring destination also allows the behaviour of tourism demand to be compared between relatively rich and poor countries. The results show the extent to which the cross-country behaviour of demand becomes more or less similar over time with respect to changes in expenditure and effective prices. The expenditure elasticities are greater for Spain than France during the initial period, indicating that tourism can assist countries to 'catch-up' with their richer neighbours. However, this outcome is not always the case and may not persist, as Portugal had a low initial expenditure elasticity and Spain's relatively high expenditure elasticity decreased over time. Destinations' sensitivity to changes in their own and competitors' prices can also change over time, as indicated by the increases in the own- and cross-price elasticities for Spain, compared with the decreases for France and Portugal. The cross-price elasticity estimates indicate substitutability between the immediate neighbours, Portugal and Spain, and France and Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria De Mello & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 2002. "A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 509-521.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:4:p:509-521
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110049310

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:124-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:181-193 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David C. Broadstock & Xun Chen, 2013. "A possible role for discriminatory fuel duty in reducing the emissions from road transport: some UK evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 540-544, April.
    7. repec:eee:touman:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:247-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Njegovan, Nenad, 2006. "Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-39.
    9. Camilo Sarmiento & Richard Just, 2005. "Empirical modelling of the aggregation error in the representative consumer model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1163-1175.
    10. Duha Altindag, 2014. "Crime and International Tourism," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    12. Tanja Kosi & Štefan Bojnec, 2010. "Tax Competitiveness of Croatia and Slovenia as Tourist Destinations," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 38-52.
    13. Luiz Moutinho & K.-H. Huarng & Tiffany Yu & C.-Y. Chen, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 2(3), pages 219-232, September.
    14. Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Turrión Prats, Judith, 2016. "Tourist seasonality in Catalonia: The relevance of demand factors," Working Papers 2072/266571, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    15. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:159-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," CEF.UP Working Papers 0501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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