IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v35y2013i6p978-991.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Kumar, Saten
  • Webber, Don J.
  • Fargher, Scott

Abstract

Monetary policy in Nigeria aims is to achieve price and monetary stability. During the 1980s and 1990s, monetary targeting was the dominant monetary policy framework in Nigeria. However, in 2006 the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopted the new monetary policy framework through which short-term interest rates are adjusted to achieve stability in the value of the domestic currency. This paper has presented an empirical investigation into the demand for Nigerian real narrow money (M1) over the period 1960–2008 in an attempt to identify whether the CBN were right to adopt the new monetary policy framework. In doing so, we estimate alternative (canonical and extended) specifications of M1 demand using structural change methods. Our results suggest that the canonical specification is well-determined. Although the money demand relationship went through a regime shift in 1986, it is largely stable. These findings favour the use of supply of money as an instrument of monetary policy, thus lending limited support for the new monetary policy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:6:p:978-991 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189381300046X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davidson, James & Ireland, Jonathan, 1990. "Buffer stocks, credit, and aggregation effects in the demand for broad money: Theory and an application to the U.K. personal sector," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 349-376.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cointegration And Aggregate Money Demand Functions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, pages 737-753.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 99-126.
    5. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1989. "Modeling buffer stock money: an appraisal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 593-612.
    6. Lothian, James R. & Darby, Michael R. & Tindall, Michael, 1990. "Buffer stock models of the demand for money and the conduct of monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 325-345.
    7. B. Bhaskara Rao & Saten Kumar, 2009. "Cointegration, structural breaks and the demand for money in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1277-1283.
    8. Drama, Bedi Guy Herve & Yao, Shen, 2010. "The Demand for Money in Cote d’Ivoire: Evidence from the Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 20131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ghartey, Edward E., 1998. "Monetary dynamics in Ghana: evidence from cointegration, error correction modelling, and exogeneity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 473-486.
    11. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2002. "Stability of the Nigerian M2 Money Demand Function in the SAP Period," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(3), pages 1-9.
    12. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 99-126.
    13. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. David Fielding, 1994. "Money Demand in Four African Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 3-37, May.
    15. B. Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh & Saten Kumar, 2010. "Do we need time series econometrics?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 695-697.
    16. Godwin Nwaobi, 2002. "A vector error correction and nonnested modeling of money demand function in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(4), pages 1-8.
    17. Scadding, John, 1990. "Comments on "The demand for money and the monetary policy process in Canada"," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 427-431.
    18. Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2006. "The equilibrium relationship among money, income, prices, and interest rates: evidence from a threshold cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1585-1592.
    19. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P., 1990. "Money demand, expectations, and the forward-looking model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 289-315.
    20. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
    21. Yoshihisa Baba & David F. Hendry & Ross M. Starr, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960–1988," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61.
    22. Adam, Christopher, 1992. "On the Dynamic Specification of Money Demand in Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 1(2), pages 233-270, August.
    23. Leahey, Cary & Robins, Russell, 1985. "Alternative specifications of the demand for money and their implications for forecasting and policy analysis with large macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 361-373.
    24. James M. Boughton & George S. Tavlas, 1990. "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: buffer stock and error correction approaches," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-467.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, pages 313-334.
    26. Ahumada, Hildegart, 1992. "A dynamic model of the demand for currency: Argentina 1977-1988," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 335-361, June.
    27. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:14:y:2002:i:3:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1012-1017, September.
    29. Biscarri, Javier Gómez & Moreno, Antonio & Gracia, Fernando Pérez de, 2010. "Money demand accommodation: Impact on macro-dynamics and policy consequences," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-154, January.
    30. Angeloni, Ignazio & Cottarelli, Carlo & Levy, Aviram, 1994. "Cross-border deposits, aggregation, and money demand in the transition to EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-54, February.
    31. Alfred A. Haug, 2006. "Canadian Money Demand Functions: Cointegration-Rank Stability," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(2), pages 214-230, March.
    32. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
    33. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Singh, Prakash, 2009. "Demand for Money in the Asian Countries: A Systems GMM Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "A Cointegration Analysis of Broad Money Demand in Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 01/26, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "Money and Swedish inflation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 931-942, November.
    36. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    37. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 623-646.
    38. Kevin Nell, 2003. "The Stability of M3 Money Demand and Monetary Growth Targets: The Case of South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 155-180.
    39. Mizen, Paul, 1996. "Modeling the demand for money in the industrial and commercial companies sector in the United Kingdom," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 445-467, August.
    40. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    41. Caramazza, Francesco & Hostland, Doug & Poloz, Stephen, 1990. "The demand for money and the monetary policy process in Canada," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 387-426.
    42. Robert Simmons, 1992. "An Error-correction Approach to Demand for Money in Five African Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 29-47, January.
    43. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2007. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with a Structural Break," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 705-739.
    44. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "A re-examination of the Japanese money demand function and structural shifts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 359-375, June.
    45. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    46. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Money demand, adjustment costs, and forward-looking behavior," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 153-173, April.
    47. Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 983-1001, December.
    48. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2009. "How stable is the demand for money in African countries?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 216-235, July.
    49. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    50. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1992. "Dynamic modeling of the demand for narrow money in Norway," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 363-393, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kumar, Saten & Sen, Rahul & Srivastava, Sadhana, 2014. "Does economic integration stimulate capital mobility? An analysis of four regional economic communities in Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-50.
    2. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2017. "An Investigation into the Interest Elasticity of Demand for Money in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 69-80, March.
    3. Folarin, Oludele & Asongu, Simplice, 2017. "Financial liberalization and long-run stability of money demand in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 81190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    5. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:167-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Jauhari B.Dahalan, 2015. "Estimating the Size of the Underground Economy in Saudi: Evidence from Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Based Currency Demand Approach," Abstract of Economic, Finance and Management Outlook, Conscientia Beam, vol. 3, pages 1-6.
    7. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
    8. Shehu El-Rasheed & Hussin Abdullah & Jauhari Dahalan, 2017. "Monetary Uncertainty and Demand for Money Stability in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 601-607.
    9. César Carrera & Jairo Flores, 2017. "Modelling and forecasting money demand: divide and conquer," Working Papers 2017-91, Peruvian Economic Association.
    10. repec:eco:journ1:2017-05-39 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Structural breaks; Cointegration; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:6:p:978-991. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.